Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 AM EST Wed Feb 01 2023

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 01 2023 - 12Z Fri Feb 03 2023

...Prolonged and significant ice storm continues across much of the
southern Plains and Mid-South...

...Heavy rain and scattered flash floods possible across parts of the Deep
South and Southeast on Thursday...

...Bitter cold and dangerous wind chills to enter the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Thursday before sweeping into the Northeast by Friday...

A long-duration winter storm that has already impacted a large portion of
the Nation with hazardous sleet and freezing rain from Texas to Tennessee
is expected to continue through at least early Thursday. One final surge
of moisture is anticipated to overrun the subfreezing air at the surface
today and lead to more icy conditions from the Lone Star State through a
majority of the Mid-South. Additional ice accumulations up to a half inch
are forecast across much of central and north-central Texas, as well as
parts of southern Arkansas. A quarter inch of ice accretion is possible
across a larger area that includes southern Oklahoma, most of Arkansas,
and into far western Tennessee. This amount of ice accretion on top of
what has already fallen is likely to lead to more treacherous travel
across untreated roadways, along with the potential for tree damage and
power outages. Sleet may also add to the slippery conditions with amounts
up to a half inch possible across northern portions of the precipitation
shield. Ice Storm Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather
Advisories are in effect. Residents are urged to check road conditions
before traveling and drive with extreme caution.

Along with the wintry weather, the aforementioned surge of precipitation
across the South with also fall in the form of heavy rain along the Gulf
Coast and areas just inland. With soils saturated, there exists a
potential for scattered flash floods from Louisiana to northern Georgia on
Thursday as a few inches of rain occurs. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall has been issued.

The next impulse of arctic air is set to enter the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest behind an approaching cold front on Thursday. This frigid
airmass along with gusty winds is forecast to swing into the Northeast by
Friday. Temperatures 20 to 40 degrees below average will lead to highs
only reaching into the single digits, with lows into the minus teens and
minus 20s. The core of the cold air will linger into Saturday across the
Northeast. Strong winds will potentially lead to wind chill values into
the minus 40s and 50s throughout northern New England, which would be the
coldest felt in decades for parts of Maine. Furthermore, snow showers and
snow squalls are possible along the strong cold front as it pushes through
the Northeast Thursday night.

Elsewhere, a cold front approaching the West Coast by early Thursday will
bring a return of unsettled weather from northern California to
Washington. Rain and mountain snow is expected, but should remain mostly
beneficial.

Snell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php