Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EST Wed Feb 01 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 02 2023 - 00Z Sat Feb 04 2023

...Prolonged and significant ice storm continues across much of the
southern Plains and Mid-South...

...Heavy rain and scattered flash floods possible across parts of the Deep
South and Southeast on Thursday...

...Bitter cold and dangerous wind chills to enter the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest on Thursday before sweeping into the Northeast by Friday...

An ice storm already leading to widespread, significant travel impacts
across the Southern Plains and Mid-South continues as warm, moist air
aloft flows northward from the Gulf over a shallow layer of freezing
temperatures at the surface. Additional ice accretions of 0.1 to 0.25" are
forecast through Thursday morning from west Texas northeastward through
the ArkLaTex and into the Mid-South, with some locally higher totals of
0.5" possible. This will bring storm total ice accretions to over 0.5" for
many locations which will raise the risk for significant tree damage and
power outages, in addition to icy, dangerous roads. Sleet may also mix in
at times with the freezing rain which will increase the chances for icing
on the roadways. Travelers should be sure to check the latest road
conditions as many local roadways and interstates are slow going or
closed.

To the east of the ice storm, a warm front will push northward along the
central Gulf Coast during the day Thursday as upper-level energy
approaches from the west, leading to the development of widespread showers
and thunderstorms for the Southeast. A more concentrated complex of storms
along and to the north of the front are forecast to produce a swath of
1-2" of rain from northeastern Louisiana northeastward through central
Mississippi, northern Alabama, and into northern Georgia. A Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect as some locally heavier rain
rates of 1" per hour, on top of very wet antecedent conditions, may lead
to a few scattered instances of flash flooding.

While temperatures begin to moderate for the Southern Plains/Mid-South on
Thursday and Friday, another blast of arctic air will push southward with
a cold front from Canada into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Highs
Thursday will be in the single digits and teens, with some below zero
highs near the Canadian border. The front will sweep through the Great
Lakes and off the coast of the Northeast by Friday morning, with
temperatures plummeting in its wake. Highs on Friday will range from the
20s and 30s along the coast/I-95 corridor to the single digits and teens
for the the Interior Northeast and Great Lakes/Midwest. Portions of
Upstate New York and locations near the Canadian border in New England
will remain below zero. Of even more concern, gusty northwesterly winds
will lead to wind chills between -40 to -50 degrees for portions of
Upstate New York and New England, with the potential of even colder wind
chills of -60 for interior Maine, matching some of the coldest wind chills
observed in decades. In addition to the cold temperatures, post-frontal
flow over the Great Lakes will lead to some moderate to heavy lake-effect
snow showers, particularly for the Upper Peninsula of Michigan along Lake
Superior and in New York east of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

Elsewhere, high temperatures will remain above average and quite pleasant
for the Florida Peninsula to end the work week, with highs in the mid-70s
to mid-80s. The High Plains are also in for a warm-up Friday as
downsloping winds push highs into the 40s and 50s. A storm system
approaching the Pacific coast early Friday will bring the chance for some
light to moderate rain showers for lower elevation/coastal locations, as
well as a few inches of snow for higher elevations in the Cascades and
Sierra. Highs will remain around average for most of the West, with 30s
and 40s for the Rockies and Great Basin, 50s for the Pacific Northwest and
northern California, and 60s to low 70s for southern California and the
Desert Southwest.

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php