Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EST Thu Feb 02 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Feb 03 2023 - 00Z Sun Feb 05 2023

...Bitter cold and dangerous wind chills to stretch from the Northern
Plains to the Northeast Friday into Saturday...

...Seasonably mild conditions return to the center of the country entering
the weekend after a chilly week...

...Periods of heavy snow return to the Sierra and Cascades late this week
into the weekend...

A cold front sweeping southward across eastern and central portions of the
country will continue to bring bitterly cold, arctic temperatures across
the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast. Highs on Friday from the
Midwest to the Interior Northeast/New England will be in the single digits
and teens, with some negative single digits for locations closer to the
Canadian border in New England. Locations closer to the coast along the
I-95 urban corridor will see highs in the teens and 20s. The cold weather
will continue into Saturday for the Northeast, with a few
record-tying/breaking lows in the single digits possible Saturday morning
for the New York City area and in the negative single digits for the
Boston and Providence areas. Gusty northwesterly winds upwards of 20 to 30
mph will lead to dangerously cold wind chills between -25 to -35 for
portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Higher gusts of 35 to
45 mph in New England will bring even colder wind chills between -40 to
-50. Northern Maine could see wind chills as low as -65, matching some of
the coldest weather in decades.

In addition to the cold, snow squalls will be possible as the front moves
through late Thursday night, bringing the risk of quick bursts of heavy,
blinding snow leading to suddenly treacherous travel conditions.
Post-frontal flow over the Great Lakes will also lead to some moderate to
heavy lake-effect snow, especially for the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
along Lake Superior and east of Lakes Erie and Ontario in New York.
Locations further south may not see quite the level of cold as further
north, but temperatures are still forecast to be much below average for
this time of year. Highs on Friday and Saturday from the Tennessee Valley
east to the Carolinas will be in the 30s and 40s, with 50s for the rest of
the inland Southeast and low 60s on the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.

Fortunately, the blast of cold air will be short-lived. A subtle ridge
aloft moving west to east over the Plains/Midwest Friday into Saturday
will help to bring more moderate temperatures to the region after a couple
rounds of bitter cold. The warm up will begin Friday for the High Plains
as downsloping winds lead to highs in the 40s and 50s. The warmer
temperatures will spread eastward on Saturday as the Northern Plains and
Midwest return to more seasonable temperatures in the 30s and 40s, with
50s for the Central Plains and the 50s and 60s for the Southern Plains.
Temperatures are also expected to quickly moderate for the East Coast just
beyond the current forecast period on Sunday.

A storm system will approach the Pacific northwest overnight Thursday into
Friday morning, bringing the chance for some light to moderate
coastal/lower elevation rain and moderate to heavy snow for the Olympic
Mountains, Cascades, and Sierra. Winds will be a bit gusty along the
coast. Some of this moisture will also reach the Northern Rockies and a
few inches of snow will be possible late Friday night and into Saturday
for the local mountain ranges. Temperatures will be seasonably mild across
the West, with 30s and 40s for the Rockies and Great Basin, 50s for the
Pacific Northwest and northern California, and 60s to mid-70s for Southern
California and the Desert Southwest. Precipitation chances will ramp up
again later Saturday for the West Coast as another system approaches the
region.

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php