Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 PM EST Sat Feb 04 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 05 2023 - 00Z Tue Feb 07 2023

...Frontal system moving through the West brings increased chances of
lower elevation/coastal rain and moderate to heavy mountain snow...

...Rapid warm up Sunday for the Northeast after record-breaking arctic
blast...

...Unseasonably warm temperatures for the Plains and Midwest with an
Elevated Risk for Fire Weather in the Southern High Plains Sunday...

A deep upper-level trough and associated frontal system over the Pacific
will begin to move eastward over the western U.S. late Saturday. Increased
moisture from the Pacific will lead to the chance for some moderate to
heavy rain along the West Coast Sunday, especially for the northern and
central California coast where rainfall totals of 1-2" are forecast. This
moisture will spread further inland bringing moderate to heavy snow to the
Cascades, Sierra, and mountain ranges of the northern Great Basin Sunday
before spreading into portions of the northern and central Rockies on
Monday. Snowfall totals will range between 6-12", with locally higher
amounts of 18"+ possible for some of the higher mountain peaks. Totals
will be even higher in the Sierra, where Winter Storm Warnings are in
effect for 1-3 feet of snow and gusty winds as high as 60 mph. Lower
elevation/valley locations of the Great Basin and northern/central Rockies
will see a mix of rain and snow, with little to no accumulations expected.
High temperatures will cool following the passage of a cold front, with
highs mostly in the 50s to low 60s for the Pacific Northwest and
California on Sunday, and highs in the 30s for the Great Basin and upper
50s to the mid-60s for the Desert Southwest on Monday. 

Temperatures will rapidly moderate across the Northeast on Sunday after a
couple days of record lows and historicly cold wind chill values. The dip
in the jet stream responsible for sending a surge of arctic air southward
will move east of the area with southerly winds advecting warmer air from
the south northward. Lows will still be rather chilly Sunday morning for
portions of New England, with temperatures around 0, but temperatures will
warm back up above freezing for most locations by the afternoon. Highs
further south in the Mid-Atlantic will be in the 40s to low 50s, with 50s
to low 60s for the Southeast. These seasonably warm temperatures will
continue into Monday, with most of New England also warming up into the
40s. Some light rain showers will be possible along the coast for the
Southeast Sunday and into the Mid-Atlantic Monday. Additionally, some
light snow showers are possible in the Interior Northeast, particularly in
favorable lake-effect areas. A frontal boundary meandering over the
Florida Peninsula will lead to increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms, with heavy rainfall possible along the Atlantic coast late
Sunday and into the day Monday.

Ahead of the upper-level trough over the west, a ridge will move over the
center of the country and lead to temperatures 15-25 degrees above normal
across large portions of the Plains and Midwest. Highs will be in the 30s
and 40s for the Northern Plains and Great Lakes Region, the 50s and 60s
for the Central Plains, Ohio Valley, and Lower Mississippi Valley, and
into the 70s for portions of the Southern Plains. Breezy winds between
15-25 mph, with higher gusts, will be prevalent along the High Plains as
lee troughing develops east of the Rockies. These gusty winds along with
the warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and dry vegetation have
prompted an Elevated Risk of Fire Weather from the Storm Prediction Center
Sunday for portions of northeastern New Mexico and the western Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles.  

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php