Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 PM EST Sun Feb 05 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 06 2023 - 00Z Wed Feb 08 2023

...Precipitation chances continue in the West as multiple storm systems
move through the region...

...Above average temperatures east of the Rockies to start the week; an
Elevated Risk of Fire Weather for the Southern High Plains Monday...

...Heavy rain with the chance for some scattered instances of flash
flooding for the Southern Plains late Tuesday...

An upper-level trough and associated surface frontal system will continue
moving through the West Sunday night into Monday, bringing additional
moderate to heavy snow generally between 4-8" to the mountain ranges of
the Great Basin and the Northern/Central Rockies. A mix of rain and snow
is forecast for lower elevation/valley locations, with little to no
accumulations expected. Another system will bring a renewed influx of
moisture and higher precipitation chances to the Pacific Northwest
starting on Monday and ramping up Tuesday. Heavy rain and gusty winds are
expected along the coast, with several inches possible for the Olympic
Peninsula. Heavy snow totals between 6-12" are forecast for the Olympic
Mountains and Cascades, with locally higher totals of 18-24"+ possible.
Highs will tend to be around average for the Pacific Northwest and
northern Great Basin, with mostly 40s forecast. Temperatures will be a bit
cooler than average for portions of the Great Basin, Desert Southwest, and
California as the upper-level trough digs southward over the region. Highs
Monday and Tuesday will be in the 30s in the Great Basin and upper 50s to
upper 60s for the Desert Southwest and California.  

To the east, a good portion of the country will be seeing temperatures
running 5-15 degrees above average for early February, and in some cases
upwards of 20-30 degrees above average. For the East Coast, highs will be
in the 30s and 40s for New England, 40s and 50s for the Mid-Atlantic, 60s
in the Southeast, and 70s for Florida. Highs in the 50s and 60s in the
Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley Monday will spread into the
Ohio Valley Tuesday. A combination of downsloping and southerly winds east
of the Rockies will lead to temperatures as high as the mid to upper 70s
in the Southern Plains Monday, with highs into the 50s for the Northern
High Plains Tuesday. Troughing in the lee of the Rockies will move
eastward across the Plains during the day Monday, bringing some gusty
winds between 20-30 mph. The combination of warm temperatures and gusty
winds, in addition to low humidity and dry antecedent conditions, have
resulted in an Elevated Risk of Fire Weather from the Storm Prediction
Center for portions of the Southern High Plains Monday. 

As the upper-level trough over the West begins to move eastward over the
Plains, a surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies and begin to
shift northeastward across the Plains during the day Tuesday, with a cold
front pushing eastward across the Plains in its wake. In response, warm,
moist air will surge northward from the Gulf ahead of the frontal system
with convergence along the cold front leading to the development of
showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon. Mean wind motions
roughly parallel to the front may lead to clusters of training storms with
sufficient moisture to produce locally heavier rainfall rates between 1-2"
per hour, especially just beyond the current forecast period into
Wednesday night. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for
northeastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, and western Arkansas where this
heavy rainfall on top of wet antecedent conditions may lead to a few
scattered instances of flash flooding. To the north, some light freezing
rain accretions will be possible across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
region where the influx of warm, moist air from the south overrides colder
air in place at the surface.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php