Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Mon Feb 06 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 07 2023 - 00Z Thu Feb 09 2023

...Widespread showers and thunderstorms with the risk for flash flooding
from the Southern Plains to the Mississippi Valley...

...Heavy lower elevation/coastal rain and mountain snow for the Pacific
Northwest...

...Unseasonably warm temperatures continue for the eastern two-thirds of
the country...

A low pressure system/cold front moving across the Plains and Mississippi
Valley will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region Tuesday into
Wednesday. Anomalously moist air from the Gulf of Mexico has begun to
return northward ahead of the cold front forecast to move through the
Southern Plains during the day Tuesday. Storm coverage is expected to
rapidly increase by Tuesday evening along the front as the low-level jet
strengthens and an intensifying jet streak provides more upper-level
forcing. The high moisture available as well as sufficient instability
will lead to rain rates between 1-2" per hour. In addition, mean flow
roughly parallel to the front will lead to the tendency for storms to
repeat over the same areas and contribute to higher rainfall totals. There
is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for northeastern Texas, eastern
Oklahoma, and northwestern Arkansas where the overlap of heavy rainfall
potential and wet antecedent conditions may lead to a few scattered
instances of flash flooding. The storms will continue into the day
Wednesday, spreading eastward with the front towards portions of the
Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley. Another Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall is in place from northern Arkansas into southeastern Missouri
where the threat for some flash flooding will continue. The cold front
will begin to speed up by Wednesday evening, lowering the threat for flash
flooding as more progressive storm motions will result in lower rainfall
totals overall. To the north, a wintry mix is expected for the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes overnight Monday, spreading east to New England
Tuesday night. A glaze to a tenth of an inch of freezing rain will be
possible. Any snow and sleet accumulations should remain light.

Another frontal system is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest
Tuesday bringing heavy rain to lower elevations near the coast, especially
for the Olympic Peninsula where several inches are possible. A Winter
Storm Watch is in effect for the Cascades with 10-14" of snow, locally
higher, forecast. The front will push eastward into the Rockies and
southward into the Great Basin by Wednesday, with snow chances increasing
for portions of the Northern Rockies. Snow totals should generally be
between 4-8 inches, with some locally higher amounts over a foot possible,
particularly in Montana. Some light rain and a wintry mix is forecast for
lower elevation/valley locations, with little to no snow accumulations
expected. Temperatures will generally remain seasonable across the West,
with highs Tuesday and Wednesday in the 30s and 40s for the interior/Great
Basin, 40s and 50s for the Pacific Northwest and northern California, and
the 60s and 70s for southern California and the Desert Southwest.

Even as multiple weather systems traverse the country, colder, arctic air
will stay to the north over Canada as temperatures remain unseasonably
mild for most locations east of the Rockies. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday
will be running 10-20 degrees above average. Temperatures in the Northern
Tier from the Plains east to the Great Lakes and New England will
generally be in the 30s and 40s. Locations from the Central Plains east
through the Middle Mississippi Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and northern
Mid-Atlantic will be in the 40s and 50s. Spring-like temperatures in the
upper 50s to mid-60s are forecast for the Ohio Valley and southern
Mid-Atlantic, with upper 60s to upper 70s for the Southeast. One exception
will be in the Southern Plains, where temperatures will be cooler
following the passage of the cold front. Highs will be in the 40s for the
Southern High Plains Tuesday, with temperatures in Texas as high as 80
prior to the cold front passage on Tuesday dropping to the mid-50s to
mid-60s Wednesday. 

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php