Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EST Tue Feb 07 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Feb 08 2023 - 00Z Fri Feb 10 2023

...Heavy snow through tonight for portions of the Cascades and northern
Rockies...

...Scattered severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible Wednesday in
the middle and lower Mississippi Valley...

...Heavy snow possible in parts of the Upper Midwest and freezing rain
possible in the higher elevations of the Northeast on Thursday...

The frontal system that is currently banked up against the coast of the
Pacific Northwest will push inland this evening and continue to push
across the Northwest through Wednesday. Moisture will stream ahead of and
along the cold front, and heavy snow expected in the higher elevations of
the Cascades and northern Rocky mountains through tonight into Wednesday.
By Wednesday night, the cold front will emerge into the Plains and
continue to push southeastwards. Cooler air in the wake of the front will
result max temperatures briefly dropping 5-10 degrees below average. High
pressure will build over the West behind the front, then the next frontal
system will approach the coastal Pacific Northwest Thursday night into
Friday.

In the eastern US, a cold front stretched from the Great Lakes region
through Central Texas this afternoon. The northern half of this front will
continue east across the Northeast tonight followed by a secondary cold
front on Wednesday. The southern half of the front will stall as low
pressure strengthens over the southern Plains tonight. Southerly flow will
push warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the lower and middle
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, which will provide support for the
development of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and night.
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible, and the Storm Prediction
Center has issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5). The
main storm hazards will be damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and possibly
some hail. In addition, locally heavy rain may result in isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding. Precipitation will shift to the
Southeast on Friday as the frontal system progresses, and the threat of
severe weather will lower with only isolated severe thunderstorms and
flash flooding expected.

The low pressure center over the southern Plains will surge northeast late
Wednesday and track across the Great Lakes by Thursday night. Snow and
mixed wintry precipitation are forecast for parts of the Upper Midwest and
Northeast on Thursday. Snow could be heavy at times, mainly in Wisconsin
and northern Michigan, and freezing rain could cause ice to accumulate in
the higher elevations of the Northeast, mainly parts of the Catskills,
Adirondacks, and northern New England mountains. On Friday, the low
pressure center will continue northeast into Canada and the trailing cold
front will push off the east coast. 


Dolan

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php