Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 AM EST Wed Feb 08 2023

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 08 2023 - 12Z Fri Feb 10 2023

...Heavy snow over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Upper
Great Lakes on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley...

...Snow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies and the
Northern/Central Plains; Pockets of rain/freezing rain over parts of the
Northeast...

Weakening onshore flow off the Pacific will produce coastal rain and
higher-elevation snow over the Pacific Northwest through late Wednesday
morning. A front over the Northern High Plains into the Northern
Intermountain Region will move eastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley
and dissipate by Thursday morning. The system will create light snow over
the Cascades, Northern Intermountain Region, and the Northern/Central
Rockies through Thursday morning. On Thursday, light snow will develop
over parts of the Northern/Central Plains. The snow will result in reduced
visibility and hazardous driving conditions.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, low pressure over the Southern Plains will move
northeastward into the Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon. On Wednesday,
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over Arkansas and
Missouri. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through
Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the
most vulnerable.

The system will create severe thunderstorms over Louisiana, Arkansas, and
Mississippi. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley through Thursday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Furthermore, on Thursday, the associated area of low pressure will move
into the Western Ohio Valley. The pressure gradient associated with the
low will produce strong wind over parts of the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes. Due to the strong wind, High Wind Watches are over parts of the
Ohio Valley on Thursday into Thursday evening. The storm will also produce
rain over parts of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes that will move into the
northeast overnight Thursday.

In addition, the storm will pull cold air over the Upper Midwest and
develop heavy snow over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on
Thursday. The system will produce moderate to heavy snow over the Upper
Great Lakes. Moreover, the northeast's rain will change to snow starting
Thursday afternoon and move into Northern New England. Along the rain/snow
line, light to moderate rain/freezing rain will develop over parts of the
Upper Great Lakes and the Northeast. The snow will result in reduced
visibility/hazardous driving conditions and ice may cause hazardous road
conditions over the region.

On Thursday, the threat of severe thunderstorms will reduce to a Moderate
Risk of strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley and
along the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast. Additionally, a Moderate Risk of
excessive rain will be over Eastern Gulf Coast/Southeast.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php