Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 PM EST Wed Feb 08 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 09 2023 - 00Z Sat Feb 11 2023

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding in the middle and lower
Mississippi Valley through tonight...

...Gusty winds and snow squalls possible in the northern and central
Rockies through tonight...

...Heavy snow possible for parts of the Upper Midwest on Thursday...

A low pressure system is strengthening over the southern Plains, which
will continue to cause severe weather and flash flooding in the middle and
lower Mississippi Valley through tonight. A trailing cold front extends
from the low pressure center to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and a warm
front extends northeast towards the Mid-Atlantic. Southerly winds ahead of
the cold front are pumping warm, moist air into the Mississippi Valley and
Southeast, creating favorable conditions for thunderstorm development. The
Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms
(level 2/5) for much of the lower Mississippi Valley and southern parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley with an embedded Enhanced Risk area (level
3/5) for western and central Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, and
southeastern Arkansas. The main severe thunderstorm threats are tornadoes
(a couple of which could be strong), damaging winds, and possibly some
hail. In addition to these threats, heavy rainfall could lead to isolated
to scattered instances of flash flooding. There is a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in effect through tonight from far
northeast Texas to far western Kentucky and far southern Illinois.

The system affecting the middle and lower Mississippi Valley will move
fairly slowly through this evening, then surge northeast towards the Great
Lakes overnight tonight into Thursday. Precipitation will spread into the
Upper Midwest and Northeast on Thursday, and the trailing cold front will
push showers and storms into the Southeast Thursday and Friday. The severe
weather threat will decrease with only isolated severe thunderstorms and
flash flooding expected in the Southeast. Wintry precipitation is forecast
across the Upper Midwest, and snow could become heavy at times. Latest
guidance indicates that snow accumulations of 4 inches or more could be
likely in northeast Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Michigan.
Precipitation in the Northeast will fall mainly as rain, but wintry mixed
precipitation and freezing rain will be possible in the higher elevations
and northern New England. A secondary cold front will follow the system,
continuing snow chances for parts of the Upper Midwest into Friday.

In the West, a cold front is progressing southeast across the region that
will bring snow to the central and northern Rockies through this evening.
Gusty winds and snow squalls are expected to accompany the front,
resulting in bursts of heavy snow and low visibilities at times. Rapidly
changing conditions and sudden reductions in visibility will result in
difficult travel. High pressure will build across the region behind the
cold front, and mostly dry weather will persist through Thursday evening.
A frontal system will approach the Pacific Northwest Thursday night,
bringing the next chance of precipitation. The system will travel south
along the coast through the end of the week, and push into the Southwest
over the weekend.


Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php