Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
207 PM EST Thu Feb 09 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Feb 10 2023 - 00Z Sun Feb 12 2023


...An active pattern with three well defined storms affecting the Lower
48...

...Heavy snows possible across portions of Northern New England Thursday
night into Friday...

...Record high minimum temperatures possible Friday morning across much of
the east coast from Florida to New England...

...Heavy rains possible across the Central Gulf coast into the Southeast...

A series of strong storm systems expected to affect the lower 48 over the
next few days. The lead storm, currently producing locally heavy snows
over portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon will be
moving across the Great Lakes this evening and into southeast Canada
tonight into Friday.  Heavy snows are possible to the north and northeast
of this storm, bringing accumulations of 6 to 10 inches across portions of
central to northern Maine Thursday night into Friday.  Winter storm
warnings and advisories are currently in effect across these areas.

To the south of the area of potential heavy snows, much above average
temperatures will stretch along the entire east coast.  There is the
potential for numerous record high minimum temperature Friday morning
along the east coast from Florida to New England and record high afternoon
temperatures Friday across central Florida and from the New York City area
to Boston.  Cooler temperatures expected along much of the eastern
seaboard this weekend, but with the overall mid to upper level flow west
to east across the lower 48, arctic air will remain absent and a return to
much above average temperatures likely by early next week.

The second well defined strong storm system will be associated with a
closing off mid to upper level low across the Southern Plains tonight into
Friday.  Precipitation amounts initially expected to be light across
portions of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley as this
system will be relatively moisture starved.  However, as this closed low
moves toward the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday, moist low level flow
will strengthen out of southwest and south off the central to eastern Gulf
of Mexico.  This will support an increasing area of heavy rains from the
central Gulf coast, northeastward across the Florida Panhandle, much of
Alabama, northern Mississippi, much of Georgia, western North Carolina and
eastern Tennessee.  Much of this region has seen average to below average
precipitation amount over the past few weeks.  This should mitigate the
flash flood potential across these areas where precipitations amounts of 1
to 2 inches are possible. 

The third strong storm system to affect the lower 48 will be moving from
northern California late  Friday, south into central California during
Saturday.  The track of this deepening mid to upper level closed low will
not be conducive to significant precipitation across California over the
next few days.  Moisture values will remain at or below seasonal averages,
with no potential for an atmospheric river to develop as occurred earlier
in the year.  Subsequently, only light to locally moderate precipitation
amounts in the .10-.25"+ range expected across northern to central
California over the next two days.

Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php