Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 10 2023 - 12Z Sun Feb 12 2023

...Mixed precipitation and heavy snow over northern Maine today will
gradually taper off by tonight...

...Heavy rain, strengthening winds, and possibly severe thunderstorms are
expected to expand across the Southeast on Saturday...

...Heavy wet snow and/or sleet are expected to develop near/over the
central and southern Appalachians Saturday night into Sunday morning...

A low pressure system moving eastward across the lower Great Lakes with a
warm front lifting north into New England will continue to deliver mixed
precipitation across northern New England and heavy snow across northern
Maine today.  As the low pressure system slides eastward and moves into
the Canadian Maritimes by tonight, the mixed wintry precipitation is
expected to taper off and change over to light snow.  The snow is forecast
to linger a bit longer downwind from the lower Great Lakes into Saturday
morning before drier air arrives from the west.

To the south of the wintry weather, widespread record high minimum
temperatures are occurring along the entire East Coast ahead of the cold
front trailing south from the low pressure system.  Cooler temperatures
behind the front will be ushered into the eastern U.S. today but they will
still be above normal by February standard.

Meanwhile, a rapidly developing low pressure system will begin to set the
stage for increasingly stormy weather across the Southeast followed by wet
snow and/or sleet for the southern half of the Appalachians.  Rain is
expected to linger across the Southeast today as the trailing portion of
the aforementioned front becomes stationary.  The highest threat of heavy
rain will initially be confined to the Florida Panhandle today.  However,
as a compact cold upper low moves toward the lower Mississippi Valley
today, moist low level flow will strengthen out of southwest and south off
the central to eastern Gulf of Mexico.  This will support an expanding
area of heavy rains from the central Gulf coast, northeastward across the
Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, northern Mississippi, much of Georgia,
western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.  Much of this region has
seen average to below average precipitation amount over the past few
weeks.  This should mitigate the flash flood potential across these areas
where precipitation amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible.

By Saturday into early Sunday, the low pressure system is forecast
to intensify more rapidly over the northeastern Gulf and move across
northern Florida.  Heavy rain, strengthening winds, and possibly severe
thunderstorms are expected to expand across the Southeast beginning on
Saturday.  By Saturday night into Sunday morning, heavy wet snow and/or
sleet are expected to develop near/over the central and southern
Appalachians when the low pressure system is forecast to further intensify
and track near the Carolina coastline.

The third strong storm system to affect the lower 48 will be moving from
northern California late today, south into central California during
Saturday.  The track of this deepening mid to upper level closed low will
not be conducive to significant precipitation across California over the
next few days.  Moisture values will remain at or below seasonal averages,
with no potential for an atmospheric river to develop as occurred earlier
in the year.  Subsequently, only light to locally moderate precipitation
amounts in the .10-.25"+ range expected across northern to central
California over the next two days.

Kong/Oravec


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php