Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2023 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 11 2023 - 12Z Mon Feb 13 2023 ...Heavy rain, strengthening winds, and embedded severe thunderstorms are expected to expand across the Southeast today and into tonight... ...Wet snow, sleet and some freezing rain is expected to develop near/over the central and southern Appalachians Saturday night into Sunday morning... ...Next round of unsettled weather to reach the Pacific Northwest Sunday night... As a low pressure system moves farther away into the Canadian Maritimes, light snow over northern New England will continue to taper off this morning. Attention will then shift into the southeastern U.S. as another low pressure system is developing over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Rain has continued to expand northeastward along/near a stationary front through the southeastern U.S. this morning. Meanwhile, moderate to locally heavy showers are pivoting eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of a compact upper low. A rather robust low pressure system is forecast to move across the Southeast through tonight before gradually sliding off the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Increasingly stormy weather can be expected to impact the Southeast especially tonight ahead of the low pressure center, where heavy rain and thunderstorms could bring flooding issues. The highest chance of severe thunderstorms is expected to be across portions of the Florida Panhandle, where the primary threat from these thunderstorms is expected to be damaging wind gusts. Meanwhile, colder air north of the storm track is forecast to bring wet snow, sleet and/or freezing rain for portions of the southern and central Appalachians tonight and into Sunday. Given the dynamic nature of this system and the marginally cold airmass in place, accumulating snowfall may be limited to the upslope regions of the Appalachian Mountains, where there is a 50-80% chance of snow accumulating 4"+. In addition to the snow, warm air aloft will bring a risk of icing over portions of the interior Mid-Atlantic, particularly over the central and southern Appalachian Mountains. WPC has issued a 30-50% probability of 0.1" of ice accretion over northwestern North Carolina and into southwestern Virginia. A strong storm system is currently pushing southward through northern and central California. Despite being a strong system, the track of this deepening mid to upper level closed low will not be conducive to significant precipitation across California over the next few days. Moisture values will remain at or below seasonal averages. Subsequently, only light to locally moderate precipitation amounts in the .10-.25"+ range expected across northern to central California over the next two days. This system will settle into the Southwest United States, with more significant impacts expected in the medium range over the southern and central Plains. By Sunday night, the next round of unsettled weather is forecast to reach the Pacific Northwest. Kong/Genz Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php