Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 12 2023 - 00Z Tue Feb 14 2023

...Wet and dreary end to the weekend for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic;
snow, sleet, and freezing rain for the Appalachians...

...Multiple areas of unsettled weather for the West beginning Sunday with
heavy snow for the Cascades...

...Unseasonably mild weather for the center of the country; Elevated Risk
of Fire Weather for the Southern High Plains Sunday...

Precipiation and overall dreary weather will continue to expand across the
Southeast and northward into the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic to end the
weekend as a low pressure system pushes up the East Coast. Showers and
some embedded thunderstorms will produce moderate to locally heavy
rainfall, with areal average totals through early Monday between 1-2".
Cooler air sinking southward along the Appalachians will lead to a heavy
wintry mix late Saturday night through the day Sunday for portions of the
southern and central Appalachians. Winter weather-related advisories are
in effect for sleet and snow accumulations generally between 1-4" as well
as a glaze to a 0.1" of ice accretions from freezing rain.  Locally higher
snow totals upwards of 10" will be possible for higher elevations along
the Tennessee/North Carolina border. High temperatures will be cool and
below average, with 50s for the Southeast and the Florida
Panhandle/northern Peninsula and 40s for the Piedmont into the
Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will rapidly warm back up on Monday as the
system departs into the Atlantic, with highs in the 60s forecast. 

Two weather systems will move into the West late Sunday with a split
stream flow regime in place. Lower elevation coastal/valley rain and
mountain snow will overspread the Pacific Northwest and portions of the
Northern Rockies Monday. Snow totals between 2-4", locally 4-8", are
forecast for the Blue Mountains of Oregon and additional ranges in the
Northern Rockies of Idaho/Montana. Heavier snow is expected in the
Cascades with totals between 8-12", locally 18"+. A second system will
move through the Southwest and Southern Rockies bringing light to moderate
rain showers to the valleys and a few inches of snow for higher mountain
elevations. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will generally be close to
average across most of the West, with 40s to low 50s for the Pacific
Northwest, 30s and 40s for the Rockies and Great Basin, and 60s in
California. Temperatures in the 70s for the Desert Southwest on Sunday
will drop into the 50s Monday as the southern system passes through.

Upper level ridging will move over the center of the country between the
systems in the East and West, leading to dry and unseasonably mild
conditions. High temperatures will be running 10-20 degrees above average,
with highs in the 30s and 40s for the Northern Plains/Great Lakes, 40s and
50s for the Central Plains east into the Ohio Valley, and 60s and 70s for
the Southern Plains. Highs will warm up into the 50s and low 60s for the
Northern and Central High Plains Monday as downsloping winds east of the
Rockies set in. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an Elevated Risk
of Fire Weather for portions of the Southern High Plains Sunday where the
warm temperatures will combine with dry antecedent conditions and gustier
winds due to a weak front/trough triggered by an embedded shortwave in the
flow aloft. The southern system over the West will begin to move into the
Southern High Plains Monday, bringing cooler temperatures and increased
rain chances later in the evening.

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php