Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Feb 12 2023 - 12Z Tue Feb 14 2023

...Low pressure system will spread wet and dreary weather up the
Mid-Atlantic into tonight; snow, sleet, and freezing rain for the
Appalachians...

...Unsettled weather will expand across the West through the next couple
of days with heavy mountain snows over the Four-Corners and along the
Cascades...

...A rapidly developing low pressure system will trigger an expanding area
of showers and possibly thunderstorms over the central Plains Monday night
into Tuesday morning...

A low pressure system developing over the southeastern states continues to
spread a dreary cold rain farther up into the Mid-Atlantic states this
Sunday morning.  Meanwhile, marginally cold air wrapping behind the low
pressure system is expected to bring mixed rain and snow for the higher
elevations of the southern and central Appalachians today, where Winter
Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect.  The center of
the low is expected to track along the Carolina coast today and then off
to the east of the Mid-Atlantic coast by tonight.  Rain is expected to
taper off from west to east later tonight as gusty winds from the north
subsides.  High temperatures will be much cooler than average today from
the interior Mid-Atlantic down into Florida but they will rebound quickly
to above normal levels behind the storm on Monday with the return of
sunshine. 

Meanwhile, a significant change in the weather pattern is forecast for the
next couple of days in the western U.S. with the simultaneous arrival of
two major storm systems.  The system currently moving onshore across
southern California is forecast to spread locally heavy mountain snows
across the Four-Corners region tonight into Monday, before emerging into
the southern Plains Monday night into early Tuesday.  A low pressure
system is forecast to rapidly develop over the central High Plains Monday
night with an area of showers and thunderstorms quickly expanding across
the southern Plains under increasingly gusty winds from the south and
southeast.  Meanwhile, a deepening upper-level trough is moving into the
Pacific Northwest and will continue to penetrate farther inland the next 
couple of days.  Mountain snows and lower elevation rains over the Pacific
Northwest today will expand into the Intermountain West on Monday,
followed by the northern Rockies by Monday night.

Upper level ridging will move over the center of the country between the
systems in the East and West, leading to dry and unseasonably mild
conditions. High temperatures will be running 10-20 degrees above average,
with highs in the 30s and 40s for the Northern Plains/Great Lakes, 40s and
50s for the Central Plains east into the Ohio Valley, and 60s and 70s for
the Southern Plains. Highs will warm up into the 50s and low 60s for the
Northern and Central High Plains Monday as downsloping winds east of the
Rockies set in. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an Elevated Risk
of Fire Weather for portions of the Southern High Plains today where the
warm temperatures will combine with dry antecedent conditions and gustier
winds due to a weak front/trough triggered by an embedded shortwave in the
flow aloft. The southern system over the West will begin to move into the
Southern High Plains Monday, bringing cooler temperatures with rapidly
increasing rain chances later in the evening.

Kong/Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php