Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Feb 13 2023 - 12Z Wed Feb 15 2023

...Unsettled weather will sprawl across the West through the next couple
of days with heavy mountain snows over the Four Corners and along the
Cascades...

...A low pressure system will trigger an expanding area of showers and
thunderstorms across the mid-section of the country  Monday night into
Tuesday...

...Snow is forecast to expand across the northern Plains to the upper
Midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with strengthening winds...

A significant change in the weather pattern is taking shape in the western
U.S. with the simultaneous arrival of two storm systems, which will later
result in complex interactions farther downstream.  An upper-level low
currently moving onshore across Baja California will deliver the first
round of mountain snows today across the Four Corners region before
emerging into the Southern Plains Monday night into Tuesday.  Some light
to moderate rain and a few thunderstorms are also expected for lower
elevation/valley locations of the Desert Southwest and Southern Rockies.
Strong, gusty winds are also expected along portions of coastal California
as well as the Sierra and adjacent desert locations.  Meanwhile, a
deepening upper-level trough will spread mountain snows and lower
elevation rains in earnest today through the Pacific Northwest and into
the Intermountain West, followed by the northern Rockies and nearby High
Plains on Tuesday.  Heavy snow totals over a foot are possible for higher
elevations in the regional mountain ranges here as well, especially for
the Cascades.  By Tuesday night into early Wednesday, the upper trough is
forecast to push farther south and east toward the Four Corners and into
the Desert Southwest where it will have a chance to get re-energized. 
Mountain snows will once again develop across the Four Corners region and
spread northeast into the central Rockies.  Meanwhile, snow across the
northern Rockies could become heavy Tuesday night as an arctic front
forces its way southward into the region.

A rapidly developing low pressure system will take center stage over the
mid-section of the country on Tuesday.  This system is expected to trigger
strong, gusty winds as high as 55-65 mph.  Showers will develop ahead of
the system moving through the central/southern Plains and eventually into
the Mississippi Valley. Some thunderstorms will also be possible,
especially for the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley.  The
showers will quickly spread into the Midwest, upper Mississippi Valley,
then into the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes Tuesday night as the low
pressure system tracks northeastward into the upper Midwest and
intensifies further.  Snow is expected to expand across the northern
Plains to the upper Midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with
strengthening north to northwest winds on the back side of the
intensifying low.

Upper level ridging will move over the mid-section of the country ahead of
the systems in the West today, leading to dry and unseasonably mild
conditions. High temperatures will be running 10-20 degrees above average,
with highs in the 30s and 40s for the Northern Plains, 40s and 50s for the
Northern High Plains and Central Plains east into the Ohio Valley, and 60s
and 70s for the Southern Plains. 

Over the East Coast, the dreary cold rain associated with another low
pressure system is forecast to move off the coast this morning. 
Temperatures will quickly rebound across the region as most of the eastern
half of the country sees unseasonably mild weather similar to the Plains.
Highs today and Tuesday will range between the 30s and 40s for the
Interior Northeast/New England/Upper Great Lakes, the 50s and 60s for the
Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic, and the 60s and 70s for the
Southeast. Highs look to remain mild into the mid/late week beyond the
current forecast period, especially along the East Coast. Otherwise, a
weak disturbance moving through the interior Northeast will deliver a
period of light snow late tonight into Tuesday morning.

Kong/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php