Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 252 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023 Valid 00Z Wed Feb 15 2023 - 00Z Fri Feb 17 2023 ...Strong low pressure is expected to bring heavy snow and possibly blizzard conditions for portions of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley tonight into Wednesday... ...A new area of low pressure pivoting across the Southwest will bring much colder temperatures and heavy snow to the Four Corners region through Wednesday... ...Low pressure ejecting from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley will bring snow from the central High Plains to portions of the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday... ...Strong to severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rainfall will impact areas from the Arklatex and lower Mississippi Valley through the Mid-South and Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday... Strong low pressure will be lifting across the Midwest and Great Lakes region tonight through midday on Wednesday and will bring areas of heavy snow and strong winds to portions of the northern Plains and the upper Mississippi Valley. Blizzard conditions will be possible locally, and especially for areas of the Red River Valley of the North. This system will quickly exit off into southeast Canada by Wednesday night as a trailing cold front settling southeastward eventually stalls from the southern High Plains up across the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, a vigorous storm system crossing the Southwest tonight will pivot east toward the southern High Plains on Wednesday and initially bring areas of heavy snowfall to the higher terrain of the Four Corners region. In fact, the San Juan mountains of southwest Colorado are expected to see as much as 1 to 2 feet of new snowfall with locally heavier amounts possible. Low pressure associated with this storm system though as it moves east across the southern Plains and toward the lower Ohio Valley by early Thursday will merge with the aforementioned frontal zone draped over the region to set the stage for a swath of accumulating snow from the central High Plains northeast across portions of the Midwest and the Great Lakes region. As much as 4 to 8 inches of snow can be expected, with even heavier amounts back toward the eastern slopes of the central Rockies, including the Front Range, and adjacent areas of the High Plains. Much colder air pouring south with this storm system will advance across the Southwest to the central and southern High Plains with temperatures dropping to as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Farther south on the warm side of this system, areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will develop and impact the Arklatex, lower Mississippi Valley, Mid-South and Ohio Valley by especially Wednesday night and Thursday. Areas of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected, and the Storm Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk of severe weather for much of this region ahead of the deepening low center and attendant cold front. Strong winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible with the stronger storms. Heavy rainfall may also foster at least a localized threat of flash flooding. In fact, the Weather Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Mid-South on Thursday. Very warm air for this time of the year will be also surging well to the north across much of the eastern U.S. ahead of this latest series of storm systems, and some temperatures are expected to reach as high as 30 degrees above normal across the East on Wednesday. Some record high temperatures are likely, and especially across the Ohio Valley. Orrison Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php