Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 15 2023 - 12Z Fri Feb 17 2023

...Ongoing blizzard conditions over portions of the northern Plains and
upper Mississippi Valley are forecast to subside later today as a strong
low pressure system exits into eastern Canada...

...A swath of snow is forecast to stretch from the Four Corners to the
lower Great Lakes today through early Friday as another low pressure
system tracks rapidly across the central U.S....

...Strong to severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rainfall will impact
areas from the Arklatex/lower Mississippi Valley across the Mid-South and
into the Ohio Valley tonight through early Friday...

With the simultaneous arrival of arctic air from central Canada and a
strong low pressure system tracking into the upper Midwest, blizzard
conditions have been experienced over portions of eastern North Dakota
into western Minnesota early this morning.  The center of the low is
expected to move across Lake Superior this morning and then exit into
eastern Canada.  Snow and blustery north to northwesterly winds behind the
low could spread brief periods of blizzard or near-blizzard conditions
across portions of the upper Midwest before tapering off to light snow
this afternoon.  Meanwhile, very mild air has been surging north across
the eastern U.S. toward the Great Lakes ahead of the low pressure system
with some record high temperatures likely, especially across the Ohio
Valley.  Rain across the Great Lakes is expect to change over to light
snow before ending as flurries by tonight as the low moves further away
into eastern Canada.

Meanwhile, another low pressure system is developing over the Four Corners
region.  This system is forecast to eject into the southern High Plains as
today progresses and intensifies more rapidly over the southern Plains
tonight.  A swath of 4 to 8 inches of snow is forecast to stretch from the
Four Corners to the lower Great Lakes through early Friday as the center
of the system tracks rapidly just south of these areas, reaching into
interior new England by Friday morning.  Blustery north to northwest winds
will also accompany the snow.

Farther south on the warm side of this system, areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will develop and impact the Arklatex, lower Mississippi
Valley, Mid-South and Ohio Valley by especially Wednesday night and
Thursday.  Areas of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected, and the
Storm Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk of severe weather for
much of this region ahead of the deepening low center and attendant cold
front.  Strong winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible
with the stronger storms.  Heavy rainfall may also foster at least a
localized threat of flash flooding.  The Weather Prediction Center has
depicted a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Tennessee
Valley on Thursday into early Friday.  Meanwhile, much colder air pouring
south with this storm system will advance across the Southwest to the
central and southern High Plains with temperatures dropping to as much as
10 to 20 degrees below normal.  On the other corner of the country, some
freezing rain could reach northern New England early on Friday.

Kong/Orrison


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php