Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 259 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023 Valid 00Z Thu Feb 16 2023 - 00Z Sat Feb 18 2023 ...A swath of snow is forecast to stretch from the Four Corners to the lower Great Lakes through early Friday as a low pressure system tracks rapidly across the central part of the country... ...Strong to severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Arklatex/Lower Mississippi Valley across the Mid-South and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley tonight through early Friday... A potent upper-level low will propagate from the Southwest to the East while phasing with a northern stream trough over the next couple of days. This upper energy will support the development of a dynamic surface low pressures system over the Southern Plains tonight. This system will likely spread a swath of 4-8" of snow across portions of the Central Plains throught the Middle Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. Meanwhile, strong to severe thunderstorms will likely spread from the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valley tonight. A slight risk with an embedded enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms is in effect for the aforementioned areas. Large to very large hail are possible over parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma this evening. Tornadoes, damaging winds and isolated hail will also develop overnight over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. The severe weather and excessive rainfall threat shift into the Southeast, Ohio/Tennessee Valley on Thursday while the different streams of upper-level energy phase with one another and intensify. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will focus along a cold front, producing heavy rainfall over portions of eastern Tennessee, northern Alabama and southeastern Kentucky. A broad slight with embedded enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms extends from the Ohio Valley down to central Gulf Coast on Thursday due to the likelihood of widely scattered severe thunderstorms developing across the region. Several tornadoes are possible over Mississippi and Alabama, including the risk for isolated strong tornadoes. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php