Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 16 2023 - 00Z Sat Feb 18 2023

...A swath of snow is forecast to stretch from the Four Corners to the
lower Great Lakes through early Friday as a low pressure system tracks
rapidly across the central part of the country...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rainfall will impact
portions of the Arklatex/Lower Mississippi Valley across the Mid-South and
into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley tonight through early Friday...

...Critical Fire Weather for the TX Big Bend...

A potent upper-level low will propagate from the Southwest to the East
while phasing with a northern stream trough over the next couple of days.
This upper energy will support the development of a dynamic surface low
pressures system over the Southern Plains tonight. This system will likely
spread a swath of 4-8" of snow across portions of the Central Plains
through the Middle Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on
Thursday.

Meanwhile, strong to severe thunderstorms will likely spread from the
Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valley tonight. A
slight risk with an embedded enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms is in
effect for the aforementioned areas. Large to very large hail are possible
over parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma this evening. Tornadoes,
damaging winds and isolated hail will also develop overnight over the
Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. The severe weather and excessive
rainfall threat shift into the Southeast, Ohio/Tennessee Valley on
Thursday while the different streams of upper-level energy phase with one
another and intensify. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will focus along a
cold front, producing heavy rainfall over portions of eastern Tennessee,
northern Alabama and southeastern Kentucky. A broad slight with embedded
enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms extends from the Ohio Valley down to
central Gulf Coast on Thursday due to the likelihood of widely scattered
severe thunderstorms developing across the region. Several tornadoes are
possible over Mississippi and Alabama, including the risk for isolated
strong tornadoes. Things quiet down across the CONUS on Friday.

Broad scale warming will continue across much of the eastern half of the
country through Thursday while the deepening upstream system promotes warm
air advection into the region. Temperatures are likely to be 20-40 degrees
above average through as late as Friday morning when a cold front will
sweep through the East Coast. High pressure builds in the West and
provides anomalous cold across the region and behind the aforementioned
cold front. Critical fire weather is expected over portions of Texas' Big
Bend region where dry and windy conditions will support fires.

Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php