Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Feb 16 2023 - 12Z Sat Feb 18 2023

...A swath of snow is forecast to stretch from the central Plains to the
lower Great Lakes and northern New England through much of Friday as a low
pressure system tracks rapidly from the central U.S. through New England...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms and threat of flash flooding will impact
portions of the interior Deep South and the Tennessee Valley through
tonight...

A low pressure system currently developing over the central U.S. will
deliver a couple more days of active weather across a large portion of the
eastern two-thirds of the country.  The center of this system is forecast
to track rather rapidly across the mid-Mississippi Valley, reaching the
lower Great Lakes by tonight.  A swath of 4-8" of snow is expected to fall
north of the track of the low center from the central Plains through lower
Michigan as the system phases with the upper trough associated with a dome
of arctic air arriving from the north.  A zone of ice and mixed
precipitation can be expected just north of the system's track as well. 
To the southeast of the center, very mild and moist air surging north from
the Gulf of Mexico will be lifted vigorously ahead of a potent cold front
trailing south from the system center.  Strong to severe thunderstorms
will likely erupt across the mid-Mississippi Valley this morning, followed
by the Tennessee Valley and into the interior Deep South this evening and
overnight tonight. Large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes are
possible in these areas, especially the interior Deep South.  Meanwhile,
the largest threat of excessive rainfall is expected to be farther north
across the Tennessee Valley through today and tonight.

By Friday, much of the East Coast will see showers and thunderstorms
moving through with strengthening southerly winds ahead of the potent cold
front.  Meanwhile, northern New England will see a period freezing
rain/sleet as a warm front lifts toward the region when the low center
approaches.  Northern Maine should see mostly snow with more than 8 inches
possible near the northern border.  Precipitation should change over to
all snow before tapering off Friday night over northern New England as the
system begins exiting into the Canadian Maritimes.  Blustery north and
northwesterly winds will usher the cold air mass into the entire eastern
U.S. and down to the Gulf Coast Friday night into early Saturday.

Meanwhile, much of the western U.S. will be cold and dry as a high
pressure system associated with the arctic air settles across the region. 
More quiet weather is forecast for the remainder of the country by
Saturday.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php