Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 23 2023 - 00Z Sat Feb 25 2023

...Significant coast-to-coast winter storm will continue to produce
widespread heavy snow and blizzard conditions across portions of the West
and the Northern Plains...

...A swath of heavy snow and locally significant ice will stretch from the
Upper Midwest to the Northeast...

...Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall will impact
portions of the Midwest through tonight...

...Record-breaking warmth expected over the East going through Thursday as
extreme cold hits the Northern Plains and the Intermountain West...

A prolonged major winter storm will continue to bring widespread heavy
snow and blizzard conditions to portions of the West, the northern Plains,
and the upper Midwest through tonight and into Thursday as a series of low
pressure waves traverse an Arctic cold front draped from the Intermountain
West east across the central Plains and Midwest. In fact, heavy snowfall
rates of as much as 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected to combine with winds
locally as high as 40 to 50 mph to drive significant impacts that will
include major disruptions to travel, infrastructure, livestock and
recreation. This series of low pressure waves that will make up this
coast-to-coast winter storm will bring heavy snow and locally significant
ice from the upper Midwest into the Northeast as well, and many of these
areas are expected to see an additional 6 to 12 inches of snow, with some
amounts perhaps as high as 18 inches through Thursday. Power outages and
areas of tree damage will be possible across these areas, and especially
for the locations seeing a combination of stronger winds and accumulating
ice.

Across the Pacific Coast and the Intermountain West, heavy snowfall rates
and strong winds will combine to produce near-blizzard conditions here as
well. The winds will be particularly strong over the higher terrain, and
may occasionally exceed 60 mph. This will produce regional concerns for
downed trees, with power outages possible, and dangerous travel
conditions. By later Thursday and Friday, the heavy snowfall threat across
the West should become much more concentrated over California as a new
storm system developing just off the West Coast drops south and begins to
edge into the Southwest for the end of the week. Going through the end of
the week, the multiple rounds of new snowfall should accumulate to as much
as 3 to 5 feet for the Sierra Nevada, with locally heavier totals for the
highest peaks. Lesser amounts of 1 to 2 feet are forecast elsewhere across
portions of the Great Basin and into the Four Corners region. Given the
depth of cold air that has infiltrated the West, accumulating snow will
also be expected over some of the lower foothills and interior valley
areas near the Pacific Coast adjacent to the terrain that are not normally
accustomed to seeing snow.

Extremely cold air will continue across many areas of the West and
stretching out across the northern High Plains and the upper Midwest going
through at least Thursday with the proximity of deep Arctic air.
Temperatures will locally be as much as 30 to 40 degrees below average,
with many locations especially over the northern High Plains seeing
temperatures well below zero. On the warm side of the aforementioned
Arctic front and evolving winter storm, record-setting warmth is expected
with temperatures on Thursday forecast to be as much as 30 to 40 degrees
above normal. In fact, many areas of the Ohio Valley, the Mid-South, Gulf
Coast, Southeast, and southern Mid-Atlantic will see temperatures pushing
80 degrees for afternoon highs.

This extreme contrast in temperature will set the stage for strong to
severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rainfall as the aforementioned
waves of low pressure advance across the Plains and through the Ohio
Valley. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk of
severe weather through tonight for the Ozarks and the middle Mississippi
Valley. Locally strong, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will be
possible across these areas. As much as 1 to 3 inches of rain will be
possible across portions of the Midwest close to the front, and the
Weather Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
from northeast Missouri through northern Illinois, northern Indiana and
far southwest Michigan. Some runoff problems and pockets of flash flooding
will be possible across these areas going through this evening and
overnight.

Orrison

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php