Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 27 2023 - 00Z Wed Mar 01 2023

...Heavy snow over the Cascades and Sierra Nevada Mountains...

...Snow and rain/freezing rain over parts of the Upper Midwest into the
Northeast...

...There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains on Sunday and a Slight Risk over the Ohio Valley on
Monday...

...High Wind Warnings and High Wind Advisories from the Southern
Rockies/High Plains to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and the
Central/Southern Appalachians...

A storm over the Central/Southern High Plains will move eastward off the
Eastern Sea Board by Monday morning. The system will produce showers and
severe thunderstorms over the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is a higher threat of wind
gusts of 65 knots or greater, two-inch or greater hail, and EF2-EF5 over
parts of the Southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley. In
addition, there is a marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central Plains into the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley through Monday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. 

Moreover, moisture streaming northward over the Plain/Mississippi Valley
will create rain and light to moderate snow over parts of the Upper West
overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Along the rain/snow line, there will
be areas of light to moderate rain/freezing rain. On Monday, the rain and
snow will move into the Great Lakes into parts of the Northeast. Likewise,
light to moderate rain/freezing rain will also develop over the region on
Monday. Overnight Monday, the snow will move into parts of New England,
while areas of rain/freezing rain will come to an end over parts of the
Great Lakes and Central Appalachians. The snow will continue over parts of
the Northeast on Tuesday. The combination of snow and ice will result in
reduced visibility and hazardous driving conditions.

In the meantime, the threat of severe storms reduces slightly on Monday.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Ohio Valley from Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail.

There will also be a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio Valley on Monday into Tuesday morning. However, the threat of severe
thunderstorms ends on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, a front over the Eastern Pacific Northwest and the associated
deep upper-level trough will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest
overnight Sunday. A second front over Southern California will move
eastward to the Southern High Plains by Monday evening. The systems will
produce coastal rain and higher elevation snow over parts of the Northwest
and California overnight Sunday into the Northern/Central Rockies through
Tuesday. The storm systems moving southeast across the Pacific Northwest
through midweek will produce heavy snow in the Cascades, Coastal Ranges,
and Sierra Nevada. Northern and Central California mountains, including
the Sierra Nevada, will see heavy snow rates in excess of 2 inches per
hour. Combined with high winds, which would cause blizzard conditions,
dangerous to even impossible travel is expected. If you plan to travel by
road at elevations above 2,000 feet through West Coast states, be prepared
for rapidly changing conditions and have winter driving supplies.

Elsewhere, the strong pressure gradient associated with the low moving
across the Southern Rockies to the Appalachians will produce high winds
over the region through Monday. Therefore, the pressure gradient has
prompted High Wind Warnings and High Wind Advisories from the Southern
Rockies/High Plains to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Central/Southern
Appalachians.

Additionally, upper-level energy will create snow over parts of the
Northeast from Sunday evening into Monday.  

Ziegenfelder

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php