Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Feb 27 2023 - 12Z Wed Mar 01 2023

...Severe weather and excessive rainfall concerns in the Midwest today...

...Heavy Snow across western mountains and Northeast...

...Elevated to Critical fire risks in the Central Southern Plains...

...Below average temperatures in the West and above average temperatures
in the East.

A deep mid-latitude cyclone will spread showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the Midwest Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic today. The storm
prediction center issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Ohio Valley due to the risk of damaging gusts and a few tornadoes.
Excessive rainfall concerns will be marginal and confined to a similar
area as the severe weather outlook since any flash flooding will likely be
isolated and caused by thunderstorm activity. A swath of snow and ice are
expected spread across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast today
while a secondary low pressure system develops and the pair of surface
waves drift slowly toward the East Coast. Rain wraps up across the
Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday while snow spreads into New England. Snow totals
by Wednesday morning are forecast to be between 4-8 inches from the Upper
Midwest to Northeast with locally higher amounts possible. Freezing rain
accumulations potentially exceeding a tenth of an inch over parts of
Minnesota and Wisconsin could cause hazardous driving conditions. Impacts
to travel are also possible in the Tri-State area on Monday and southern
New England on Tuesday due to snow.

Persistent troughing in the West will contribute to cold temperatures of
about 15-25 degrees below average as well as heavy mountain snow. The
Sierra Nevada, in particular, will become the focus for intense snowfall
through midweek as a series of storm systems move across the Pacific
Northwest and California. Cold temperatures will make for lower than
normal snow levels. Mountains from southern Oregon to central California
will see the greatest impacts with heavy snow rates in excess of 2 inches
per hour at times and additional snowfall of 4-7 feet along the Sierra
Nevada. Combined with high winds, blizzard conditions and dangerous to
impossible travel are expected. If you plan to travel by road at
elevations above 1,000 feet through West Coast states, be prepared for
rapidly changing conditions and have winter driving supplies. Heavy snow
will make it as far east as the Colorado Rockies and as far south as
northern Arizona where hazardous travel conditions are expected Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Some light snow may develop over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on
Tuesday night as shortwave energy breaks from the West Coast trough and
the associated low pressure system pushes east into the Plains. Some 3-6
inches with locally higher amounts are possible by Wednesday morning. Dry
and windy surface conditions are expected to support an elevated risk of
fire weather over portions of southeastern Colorado the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles eastern New Mexico and down to the Big Bend of Texas today.
Drier and windier conditions on Tuesday will support an embedded critical
fire weather area for portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas.
Ridging in the Southeast will promote warm air advection into much of the
eastern half of the country over the next few days with anomalies ranging
between +15 to +25 degrees above average in many places.

Kebede

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php