Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 28 2023 - 00Z Thu Mar 02 2023

...Heavy snow to impact parts of the Northeast tonight into Tuesday...

...Several rounds of heavy snow and strong winds to create extremely
dangerous travel conditions across the Sierra Nevada...

...Swath of moderate to locally heavy snow possible across the northern
Plains Tuesday through Wednesday morning...

...Threat of excessive rainfall increases over portions of the Tennessee
Valley on Wednesday...

A busy weather pattern is expected to continue through midweek with
impacts throughout many different regions of the country. Starting off in
the Northeast, a system lifting through the Great Lakes this afternoon is
forecast to spread wintry precipiation into the Northeast and southern New
England tonight before further spreading into northern New England on
Tuesday. Cold air is forecast to remain locked in place across this region
as a secondary low pressure system forms off the Mid-Atlantic coastline
early Tuesday and slides eastward. Snowfall totals are generally expected
to add up to around 4-8" throughout New England and the Interior
Northeast. Higher amounts are possible across the more highly elevated
mountainous regions. Otherwise, New York City will be on the southern edge
of the heaviest snowfall and could mix with sleet at times, limiting
snowfall amounts to the 2-6" range, but still likely the biggest snowstorm
of the season. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are in
effect from central PA (where light freezing rain is also possible)
through coastal Maine.

For the West Coast, the cold and wintry pattern continues with two more
rounds of heavy snow forecast to enter the Sierra Nevada and northern
California over the next few days. Additional snowfall of 4-7 feet are
expected along the Sierra, with snowfall rates in excess of 2" per hour.
Combined with strong wind gusts up to 60 mph, blizzard conditions are also
anticipated through at least early Wednesday. Travel will become very
dangerous to impossible at times through the Sierra mountain passes. Heavy
mountain snow will also spread across the Intermountain West, Southwest,
and central/southern Rockies during this time period. Snowfall amounts
over a foot are likely throughout the higher mountain ranges, which will
lead to potentially hazardous weather in these regions as well.

The final area of potentially impactful winter weather is forecast to
occur between the Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning hours across the
northern Plains along a narrow swath of moderate to locally heavy snow. A
low pressure system swinging from the northern Rockies to the Dakotas will
work in tandem with a draped stationary front and cold airmass to create
the possibility of heavy snow. The heaviest amounts are currently forecast
along the North Dakota-South Dakota border, which could locally reach up
to 8 inches.

By Wednesday, a strong storm system is forecast to begin ejecting out of
the Southwest while moisture surges out of the Gulf of Mexico toward a
lingering frontal boundary over the Mid-South. This will create an
environment conducive for heavy rainfall across the Tennessee Valley. A
few scattered flash floods are possible where the heaviest rain rates
occur, especially over much of Tennessee.

The temperature outlook through the first day of March will feature
springlike warmth from the southern Plains and Gulf Coast through the
Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic. Highs into the 60s and 70s are likely,
with 80s for the Gulf Coast States. This is also likely to break numerous
daily high temperature records, especially on Wednesday. Conversely, the
West is likely to experience much colder weather, with temperatures as low
as 30 degrees below average. Many of the daily record low temperatures
forecast extend from western Oregon to much of California.

Snell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php