Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Feb 28 2023 - 12Z Thu Mar 02 2023

...Heavy snow to impact parts of the Northeast today...

...Heavy snow and strong winds will create extremely dangerous travel
conditions across the Sierra Nevada...

...Swath of moderate to locally heavy snow possible across the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest through Wednesday morning...

...Increasing severe weather and Excessive rainfall concerns for parts of
the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley through midweek...

...Critical Fire weather risk in the Southern Plains...

Shortwave energy will continue to generate moderate to heavy snow across
the Northeast today before coming to an end on Wednesday. Hazardous
driving conditions are expected today for parts of New England and upstate
New York so use extra caution while driving. Closures and disruptions to
infrastructure may occur. Snowfall totals of 4-8 inches are expected with
locally higher amounts possible. Some light icing may occur on the
southern periphery of the snow shield in northern Pennsylvania and
southern New York. Another shortwave impulse will produce a swath of
moderate to heavy snow across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
tonight into Wednesday before shifting into the Great Lakes and Northeast
on Wednesday night into Thursday. Between 4-8 inches of snow are possible
for parts of southern North Dakota, northern South Dakota and central
Minnesota.

An amplified upper-level pattern will generate significant weather impacts
from the western mountains to the Mid-South at the start of March. A
digging upper low will spin into the Southwest as its associated surface
features swing through the southern Cascades, Sierra Nevada and Southwest.
Mountains from southern Oregon through California will see heavy snow
rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour and additional snowfall of 2-4 more feet
for the Sierra Nevada and southern California ranges through Wednesday.
Blizzard conditions will make for dangerous to impossible travel. Heavy
snow will push across the terrain of the four Corners and the Southern
Rockies where hazardous travel conditions are expected today and
Wednesday. If you plan to travel through any mountain passes in the
Southwest states through Wednesday, be prepared for rapidly changing
conditions and have winter driving supplies.

The aforementioned upper low will dig into the Southwest on Wednesday and
promote moisture advection over parts of the Lower/Middle Mississippi
Valley and Tennessee Valley beginning Wednesday night. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms
developing over portions of the ArkLaTex, northern Mississippi and
southwestern Tennessee according to the Storm Prediction Center. Hail
damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible within any storms
that develop on Wednesday. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall will
simultaneously be in effect for much of the Tennessee Valley. The severe
and excessive rainfall threat will shift back into the Lower/Middle
Mississippi Valley on Thursday.

Very dry and windy conditions beneath the digging upper trough and
tightening pressure gradient will support Critical Fire Weather Risks
along the Texas-New Mexico border. The West will experience cooler than
average temperatures while the East experiences anomalous warmth.
Widespread temperature records are expected to be tied or broken from the
Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley where anomalies of +15-+25 degrees are
likely through Wednesday. Record cold highs may occur along the West Coast
today and Wednesday as well with -15--25 degree anomalies expected.

Kebede

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php