Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Wed Mar 01 2023

Valid 12Z Wed Mar 01 2023 - 12Z Fri Mar 03 2023

...Dangerous Excessive Rainfall and Severe Weather to impact portions of
the ArkLaTex, Midwest and Southeast over the next few days...

...Heavy snow in the southern Sierra Nevada, Transverse/Peninsular Ranges
today; Southwest and Central Plains through Thursday...

...Heavy snow in the Cascades and Northern Rockies beginning on Thursday...

...Critical Fire Weather concerns persist for the Southern Plains...

A highly amplified upper-level pattern will promote very impactful weather
to span from coast to coast over the next few days. Heavy snow in the
Sierra and Transverse/Peninsular ranges will come to an end this afternoon
while the associated low pressure system shuttles Pacific moisture into
the southern Great Basin and Southern Rockies, where heavy snow is
expected to ensue. Additional snowfall of 1-2 feet are possible in the
mountains of Southern California and Four Corners by Thursday morning.
Blizzard conditions will make for dangerous to impossible travel this
morning before subsiding this afternoon. There continues to be potential
for avalanches in some mountain ranges.

Meanwhile, a shortwave trough moving through the northern tier of the
country will produce a swath of light to moderate snow across the Upper
Midwest today. The associated moisture will weaken as the low pressure
system moves into the Northeast, leading to light snow over the region on
Thursday. 3-6 inches of snow are expected for portions of central
Minnesota and northern Wisconsin today then 1-3 inches in the Northeast on
Thursday as interior areas prepare for a late week winter storm.

A southern stream shortwave will pull enough moisture and instability into
the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valley to support a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms today. Flash flooding, hail,
damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible. A deep upper-level low
will emerge over the Southern Plains on Thursday in the wake of the
aforementioned shortwave. This system is expected to be more impactful
than its predecessor with widespread flash flooding and severe
thunderstorms likely over portions of the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi
Valley on Thursday. According to the Storm Prediction Center, severe
thunderstorm outbreak is likely across parts of the Southern Plains into
the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss regions with a few strong tornadoes, widespread
damaging winds and hail possible. Previously saturatd soils and urban
areas will be particularly susceptible to flash flooding. Very dry and
windy conditions on the backside of this system will support a critical
risk of fire weather across the New Mexico-Texas border region over the
next couple of days. Temperatures will be below average in the West for
the foreseeable future while today/tonight's widespread record breaking
warmth in the East moderates in the coming days.

Kebede

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php