Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 AM EST Thu Mar 02 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Mar 02 2023 - 12Z Sat Mar 04 2023

...Powerful storm system to bring severe weather and excessive rainfall to
portions of the Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valleys,
Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and Southeast...

...Swath of heavy snow to stretch across parts of the Upper Midwest into
the Northeast on Friday; Heavy snow in the Pacific Northwest and Northern
Rockies today...

...Critical Fire weather concerns in the Southern Plains today...

...Anomalous warmth in the East begins to subside this weekend while
seasonably chilly temperatures persist in the West...

A severe weather outbreak is likely across parts of the Southern Plains
into the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss regions today into tonight, while a
surface low pressure system develops beneath a highly amplified
upper-level low. Widespread damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are
all expected. A few long-lived, intense tornadoes are possible. The Storm
prediction Center maintained its Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms
over the ArkLaTex region with a broader enhanced risk area spread out
across inland portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley. Substantial moisture and instability from the Gulf of Mexico will
flow into the aforementioned regions as well as the Mid-South and Midwest
leading to excessive rainfall and flash flooding concerns over the next
couple of days. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive rainfall for portions
of the Southern Plains and Mid-South today, where a swath of 2-4 inches of
rainfall is possible. High rain rates (especially in convective cells) and
already saturated soils support the flash flooding risk over vulnerable
areas. Very dry and windy conditions on the backside of this system will
support the Critical Fire Weather outlook issued by the Storm Prediction
Center for portions of the Big Bend region of Texas.

Meanwhile, an exiting system will produce a stripe of 4-8 inches of snow
across parts of Maine today. The system bringing severe weather and heavy
rain to the southern tier states will lift northward on Friday and spread
a swath of moderate to heavy snow from northern Illinois to the New
England coast. Snowfall totals are likely to be between 6-10 inches with
locally higher amounts especially over the higher terrain of the
Northeast. A low pressure system will bring heavy snow to the Cascades and
Northern Rockies today, where between 6-12 inches with some peaks in the
northern Cascades getting closer to 2 feet possible. Temperatures in the
West will remain below average for the next several days while anomalous
warmth in the East will slowly break down as the deep low pressure system
and attendant cold front sweeps through the region in the coming days.

Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php