Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Fri Mar 03 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 04 2023 - 00Z Mon Mar 06 2023

...Strong storm system to bring heavy snow to interior portions of the
Northeast along with sleet and freezing rain just south of the heaviest
snow tonight ...

...Above-average temperatures return to most locations east of the Rocky
Mountains for the weekend while the West remains cold and unsettled...

...Severe thunderstorm and flash flood threats to wind down tonight for
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...

A strong area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley this afternoon has been
associated with widespread heavy rain and flooding from the southern
Plains into the Ohio Valley along with severe thunderstorms across many of
these same locations into the Tennessee Valley. As the surface low tracks
northeastward tonight, the remaining flash flood and severe weather
threats will begin to wind down as the associated cold front reaches the
East coast. However, areas of heavy snow will spread into southeastern
Lower Michigan and interior sections of the Northeast as the system
advances tonight. A mixture of sleet and freezing rain will mix in across
central New York and Pennsylvania into southern New England. Areas of
heavy snow with rates of at least 1 to 2 inches per hour at times will
significantly impact travel across portions of the Midwest into New York
and New England. Parts of northern Upstate New York into central New
England could see over a foot of snow before the storm exits Saturday
afternoon. Increasing wind gusts up to 45 mph will also accompany this
system which may down trees and generate power outages.

In the wake of the strong storm exiting the East Coast on Saturday,
conditions across the middle of the nation will see fairly pleasant
weather with temperatures warming above average through the weekend. For
Sunday, high temperatures across the central to southern Plains are
expected to range 10 to 20 degrees above average and closer to 10 degrees
above average for the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

These warm temperatures in the central/eastern portion of the lower 48
will be in contrast to the western U.S. where high temperatures on
Saturday and Sunday will be roughly 10 to 20 degrees below average. An
upper level trough is forecast to settle along the West Coast carrying a
number of upper level impulses into the West Coast. Snow levels will be
lower than average for many locations from Oregon into northern California
and the Sierra Nevada is expected to see over 2 feet of new snowfall
through Sunday evening. Snow for interior portions of the western U.S. can
also be expected with relatively light accumulations except for the
mountains which could see locally heavy snowfall accumulations.

Otto


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php