Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 AM EST Sun Mar 05 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Mar 05 2023 - 12Z Tue Mar 07 2023

...Swath of moderate to locally heavy snow to impact parts of the Northern
Plains into the Great Lakes...

...Additional rounds of heavy snow throughout the Sierra Nevada and
northern California...

...Critical fire weather throughout the southern High Plains...

A cold and wintry weather pattern remains entrenched across the western
U.S. and is forecast to spread into the northern tier over the next few
days  as a storm system rides over the top of a stagnant upper-level ridge
anchored over the Southeast. This next winter storm is forecast begin
impacting parts of the northern Plains today with potentially heavy snow
and patchy blowing snow. Areas most at risk for heavy snowfall rates and
accumulations over 6 inches resides along the South Dakota-North Dakota
border through tonight before the system slides east by Monday morning.
The moderate snowfall threat will then shift into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes, where a swath of fresh snowfall is expected to stretch from
central/southern Minnesota to northern Wisconsin and Michigan. Snow is
anticipated to become less widespread throughout the Northeast as the
system rapidly weakens on Tuesday.

Additional rounds of heavy snow are likely to impact much of the Sierra
Nevada and northern California today, with light snow lingering through at
least midweek. A potent system entering the West Coast this morning will
be responsible for much of the snowfall forecast to occur over the next
few days. Additional amounts up to 2 feet are possible for these regions,
where an abundant amount of snowfall has already occurred this winter
season. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect. Light to moderate snowfall
is also anticipated to spread through much of the Intermountain West and
central/northern Rockies.

For much of the central and southeastern U.S., well above average
temperatures are forecast today before the core of the springlike warmth
pushes into the Ohio Valley on Monday. Widespread highs into the 70s and
even 80s throughout the Deep South are expected, which could break several
daily temperature records. Along with the warm temperatures, strong winds
and low relative humidity will create critical fire weather conditions
across the southern High Plains through Monday. Red Flag Warnings are in
effect to further highlight the concern. By Tuesday night, a frontal
boundary is anticipated to stall across the southern Plains and clash with
the warm airmass. Numerous showers and thunderstorms may develop and
contain locally heavy rainfall from far north-central Texas to northwest
Arkansas. Localized flash flooding could be a concern, especially for
regions that remain saturated after recent heavy rain.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php