Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EST Mon Mar 06 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 06 2023 - 12Z Wed Mar 08 2023

...Stripe of locally heavy snow to stretch from the Great Lakes to the
northern Mid-Atlantic today...

...Heavy rain and the potential for scattered flash flooding enters parts
of the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday night...

...Rounds of heavy snow continues across parts of the West before snow
becomes more widespread across the northern Plains by Wednesday...

A low pressure system currently over the Midwest this morning, along with
an attached warm front extending to the east, is responsible for a region
of moderate to locally heavy snow extending from the Upper Midwest to the
Great Lakes. As this system slides toward the Mid-Atlantic this evening, a
narrow swath of potentially heavy snow is possible across northern/central
Pennsylvania and western New York. For the most part, snowfall amounts are
generally expected to range between 3 to 6 inches, but could come down
heavy at times where localized snow bands develop. Gusty northerly winds
behind this system across the East Coast will usher in a much cooler
airmass by midweek.

By Tuesday, a stalling frontal boundary across the southern Plains will
begin to focus shower and thunderstorm activity from north-central Texas
to Arkansas. Some storms may contain intense rainfall rates and linger
over the same locations for an extended period of time. This will lead to
the chances for scattered flash floods, particularly over parts of
central/eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas on Tuesday night. The
threat of heavy rain is then forecast to expand and shift gradually to the
south by Wednesday, still including much of eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.

Winter remains locked in place across the West to start the week and is
anticipated to spread into much of the north-central U.S. by Wednesday.
Rounds of light to moderate snow are forecast to add up to an additional 1
to 2 feet across the Sierra Nevada and northern California. By midweek, a
more organized system is forecast to move onshore northern California and
bring the heaviest snow for this region over the next few days. This
system will then eject into the central U.S. by Wednesday night and
interact with a cold airmass nosing southward due to a strong arctic high
located in south-central Canada. Widespread snow is forecast throughout
much of the northern Plains and could be heavy at times, with moderate
chances for at least 4 inches of snow across western South Dakota by
Thursday morning.

Elsewhere, well above average temperatures are forecast to surge into much
of the central/southeastern U.S. today before the springlike warmth
confines to the Gulf Coast States by Wednesday. Highs are expected to soar
into the 70s this afternoon as far north as the Ohio Valley, with 80s
across the Deep South and southern Plains. These warm temperatures could
break several daily record highs.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php