Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Mar 11 2023 - 12Z Mon Mar 13 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of California
and the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys...

...Heavy snow over parts of the Upper Midwest; Pockets of rain/freezing
rain over parts of the Middle Missouri Valley on Saturday and the Central
Appalachians on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday and over parts of
the Lower Mississippi and Southeast on Sunday...

A storm over the Northern High Plains will move eastward to the Great
Lakes by Monday morning. A winter storm will generate periods of heavy
snow across portions of the Upper Midwest, continuing into Sunday. Heavy
snow combined with strong gusty winds will produce blizzard conditions
across portions of North Dakota. Scattered power outages are possible.
Snowfall totals greater than 6 inches are forecast from North Dakota to
northern Wisconsin. Totals greater than 12 inches are most likely in
northern North Dakota and in the Minnesota Arrowhead. Snow-covered roads
and reduced visibility will make travel difficult across impacted areas.
Moreover, there will be pockets of rain/freezing rain over parts of the
Middle Missouri Valley along the rain/snow line on Saturday.

The storm moves into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes on
Sunday, producing moderate to heavy snow over the region and light snow
over parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians.
On Sunday, there will also be pockets of rain/freezing rain over parts of
the Central Appalachians. Overnight Sunday, the snow will move into parts
of the Northeast and continue over parts of the Great Lakes.

A second storm over the Southern Plains will move eastward to off the
Southeast Coast by Monday. As the storm moves onto the Plains, an area of
showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is an increased
threat of two-inch or great hail over parts of the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley.

Furthermore, there will be heavy rain associated with thunderstorms.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable.

On Sunday, the storm moves into the Tennessee Valley producing showers and
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi and Southeast.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Lower Mississippi and Southeast from Sunday into Monday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In
addition, there is an increased threat of two-inch or great hail over
parts of the Central Gulf Coast.

The threat of excessive rainfall has reduced slightly on Sunday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Southeast from Sunday into Monday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas
that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, onshore flow will produce coastal rain and highest elevation
snow over parts of California through Monday. Heavy rain and snowmelt will
continue widespread considerable flooding impacts below 5000-foot
elevation along the central California coast, San Joaquin Valley, and
southern Sierra Nevada foothills into early Saturday. Heavy, wet snow will
continue at higher elevations in the Sierra Nevada. Rain in low elevations
and foothills, and snow at high elevations, will refocus in the northern
half of California, northwest Nevada, and Oregon through Monday, with a
slightly lower intensity.

Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with
these over parts of California through Sunday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and burn scars the most vulnerable.

The heavy rain will continue over Northern California on Monday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with
these over parts of California from Sunday into Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and burn scars the most
vulnerable.

Elsewhere, a low off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast will create snow over
parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, ending by late Saturday
night.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php