Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 12 2023 - 00Z Tue Mar 14 2023

...Heavy snow and difficult travel conditions over the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest tonight...

...Severe weather possible in the Ozarks tonight and into the Southeast on
Sunday...

...Additional rain and mountain snow for the West Coast into Monday...


Low pressure moving through North Dakota this afternoon into the evening
will steadily move eastward through the Upper Midwest early Sunday. Snow
will be heavy at times with gusty winds this evening creating blizzard
conditions over parts of the region, even after the snow has stopped
falling. Travel will be difficult due to reduced visibility and
snow-covered roads. Snow will spread through the western Great Lakes
overnight and across Michigan Sunday. The heaviest snow is expected over
much of Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan. Light snow is forecast for
areas to the southeast (Lower Michigan, the Midwest, and into the
Appalachians) as the system weakens into Monday.

To the south, another area of low pressure over eastern Oklahoma will move
eastward this evening as a warm front lifts through the Ozarks. Moisture
will increase across the region from the south and southeast, promoting an
expanding area of rainfall across the mid and lower Mississippi Valley.
Increased instability over the region will favor thunderstorms this
evening into the overnight hours, where the Storm Prediction Center has
placed the area under a Slight Risk for severe weather, including the
possibility of large hail. Coincident with this area, heavy rain may lead
to flash flooding in some areas. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is
also in effect over the area into the Mid-South. This system will move
east on Sunday, with a renewed threat of heavy rain and flash flooding as
well as severe weather. The cold front will bring in cooler and drier air
to the South on Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will be about 10-20
degrees cooler behind the front from Texas eastward to the Florida
panhandle.

In the West, onshore flow and a weak area of low pressure well offshore
will maintain an unsettled pattern for central and especially Northern
California northward into the Pacific Northwest. A warm front extending to
the CA coast will focus showers and heavier steady rain into the Coastal
Ranges and northern/central Sierra where significant snow is expected
above 6000-7000ft. Rainfall and snowmelt may exacerbate flooding in the
area. On Sunday into early Monday, as the weak system offshore lifts
northeastward, the rainfall will focus farther to the north over northern
California into coastal Oregon/Washington. A cold front will finally move
ashore early Monday in the Pacific Northwest, spreading additional lower
elevation rain and mountain snow across the Great Basin. Temperatures will
be near to below normal for much of the Lower 48 Sunday into Monday,
except for much of Florida and parts of the Southwest.

Fracasso


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php