Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 15 2023 - 00Z Fri Mar 17 2023

...Heavy rain and the potential for significant flash flooding continues
for parts of central/southern California tonight...

...Gusty winds and periods of heavy snow lingers across New England
through early Wednesday...

...Next storm system to enter the central U.S. by Thursday to bring the
threat of heavy snow throughout the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, with the
potential for flash flooding and severe weather across the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...

A strong Atmospheric River currently impacting California is forecast to
continue producing numerous rounds of heavy rain and mountain snow for
central/southern portions of the state through tonight. Heavy rain
combined with snowmelt below 5000 feet is likely to result in widespread
instances of flooding, especially for areas that are still extremely
vulnerable from recent rainfall. Some significant flooding impacts are
possible. Widespread Flood Watches, Warnings, and Advisories are in
effect, along with a High Risk (level 4/4) of Excessive Rainfall across
parts of the southern Sierra Nevada foothills and central/southern
California coast. The storm system is expected to push further inland and
into the Intermountain West tonight, while the attached cold front
completes its trek through southern California early Wednesday and ends
the excessive rainfall threat. Along with heavy rainfall, this potent
storm is expected to produce heavy mountain snow from the Sierra to the
central/northern Rockies through Wednesday, as well as the potential for
gusty winds. As the cold front slides into the Southwest on Wednesday,
locally heavy rain could also lead to isolated flooding over parts of
central Arizona.

For the Northeast, an ongoing Nor'easter churning just northeast of Cape
Cod is anticipated to continue producing gusty winds and periods of heavy
snow throughout New England into Wednesday. Although the heaviest snow is
expected to gradually diminish tonight, additional amounts of 6 to 12
inches are possible across parts of Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and
northern Maine. Snowfall totals over 2 feet have been reported across
parts of southern Vermont, Massachusetts, and New York State today, which
has led to scattered power outages and tree damage due to the weight of
the snow. Gusty winds up to 60 mph along the coast and 40 mph inland could
lead to additional power outages and blowing snow could lead to even more
travel difficulties tonight. The low pressure system is forecast to peak
in intensity late this evening near Cape Cod before gradually sliding
eastward into the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday.

To the south of the strong Nor'easter, cold temperatures have surged into
the Mid-South and Southeast. Low temperatures forecast to dip near or
below freezing on Wednesday morning may lead to damage to vegetation and
unprotected plumbing. Widespread Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories
extend from northern Arkansas to the eastern Carolinas, while also
stretching as far south as southern Alabama and Georgia. These cold
morning temperatures may linger into Thursday across the Southeast, until
a warm up commences by the end of the week.

The next major storm system to develop across the central U.S. is
anticipated to organize on Thursday as the system responsible for the
ongoing California Atmospheric River ejects into the Great Plains. The
winter weather impacts associated with the storm are expected to be
confined to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes (eastern Minnesota, northern
Wisconsin, and the U.P. of Michigan), where widespread snowfall totals
over 4 inches are most likely. Farther south, a warm and humid airmass
surging out of the Gulf of Mexico and interacting with an approaching cold
front may spawn the potential for several showers and thunderstorms from
the southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few of these storms
could turn severe and be capable of producing large hail, damaging wind
gusts, and a few tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms for much of eastern Texas
into the ArkLaTex region. Thunderstorms may also contain intense rainfall
rates and lead to scattered flash flooding, particularly over the ArkLaTex
and nearby surrounding areas.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php