Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 404 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2023 Valid 12Z Wed Mar 15 2023 - 12Z Fri Mar 17 2023 ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest on Wednesday and over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday... ...Heavy snow over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes; Pockets of rain/freezing rain over parts of the Middle Missouri Valley... ...Nor Easter will wind down along the Northeast Coast... ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains on Thursday... Low pressure over the Gulf of Maine will slowly move eastward over the Atlantic overnight Wednesday. As a result, the snow will slowly taper off through Thursday morning. Additional 3-8 inches of snowfall can be expected over portions of New York and New England into Wednesday. When shoveling heavy-wet snow, please be mindful of the increased danger for injuries and heart attacks. Minor coastal flooding and beach erosion are forecast for high tide tonight, mainly in Massachusetts, as the strong low pressure center lingers in the Gulf of Maine. The effects of the storm will end by Thursday morning. Meanwhile, a front extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley, generally westward to the Northern Intermountain Region, then southwestward to Southern California, will move eastward to the Great Lakes southward to the Central Gulf Coast by Friday. A wave of low pressure over the Northern Intermountain Region will move eastward to the Great Lakes by Friday. The storm will produce snow over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region, Great Basin, and Northern Rockies and expand into parts of the Central Rockies and Northern Plains by Wednesday evening. Furthermore, isolated pockets of rain/freezing rain will develop along the rain-snow line over parts of the Upper Missouri Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. On Thursday, as the low moves into the Upper Mississippi Valley, light snow and rain will develop parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes and Northern/Central Plains. Overnight Thursday, the storm will produce heavy snow over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes. In addition, pockets of rain/freezing rain will continue over parts of the Middle Missouri Valley into Friday. In the meantime, the rain will slowly end over California overnight Wednesday. The rain will move into parts of the Great Basin and areas of heavy rain will develop over the Southwest. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and burn scars the most vulnerable. The rain will move into the Southern Rockies on Thursday. Moreover, as the front moves out of the Rockies, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Southern Plains from Thursday into Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is an increased risk of two-inch or great hail over the area. Furthermore, heavy rain will be associated with these thunderstorms. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday into Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php