Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Mar 16 2023 - 12Z Sat Mar 18 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...

...Heavy snow over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great
Lakes; Pockets of rain/freezing rain over parts of the Middle Missouri
Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley...

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains on Thursday and a Slight Risk over the Central Gulf
Coast...

A storm over the Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley will move
northeastward to Canada by Saturday. The system will produce rain and snow
over parts of the Midwest on Thursday, moving into the Northeast by Friday
afternoon.

In addition, a band of locally heavy snow will develop over central
Nebraska with increasing winds and coverage as the storm tracks northeast
through the Upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday. The system will then
pivot east Thursday night over the Upper Midwest. At the same time,
lake-enhanced snow occurs off Lake Superior before transitioning to
lake-effect snow that continues Friday into Saturday. A stripe of locally
heavy snowfall is forecast from central Nebraska through central
Minnesota. Snowfall of 1 foot is likely over portions of northeast
Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and 2 feet are possible in the U.P. of
Michigan. Snow-covered roads and reduced visibility will make travel
difficult across impacted areas. Whiteout conditions are possible within
the heaviest snow bands. Furthermore, pockets of rain/freezing rain will
continue over parts of the Middle Missouri Valley and the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes into Friday.

In the meantime, the rain and higher elevation snow will develop over
parts of the Southwest and Central/Southern Rockies, ending overnight
Thursday.

Moreover, as the front moves out of the Rockies, moisture from the Western
Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the Lower Mississippi Valley
into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. As a result, showers and severe
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of
severe thunderstorms over the Southern Plains through Friday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is
an increased risk of two-inch or great hail over the area.

Moreover, heavy rain will be associated with these thunderstorms.
Therefore, through Friday morning, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi
Valley. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable.

On Friday, as the associated front moves eastward, showers and severe
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Gulf Coast into the
Southeast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over the Central Gulf Coast from Friday into Saturday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and a minimal
threat of hail.

The heavy rain will reduce to moderate to heavy rain over parts of the
region on Friday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys
and the Southwest from Friday into Saturday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that
experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Concurrently, rain will develop
over parts of the Mid-Atlantic into Saturday. Elsewhere, upper-level
energy will create snow over parts of the Central/Southern Rockies.

Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php