Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 17 2023 - 00Z Sun Mar 19 2023

...Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall can be expected
through tonight across portions of the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley...

...Heavy snow is expected over portions of the Upper Midwest and into the
Upper Peninsula of Michigan tonight through the first half of the
weekend...

...Much of the U.S. will see below to much below normal temperatures going
into the weekend...

Multiple waves of low pressure lifting northeast across the Midwest will
consolidate and deepen tonight through Friday across the Great Lakes
region, with this latest winter storm bringing heavy accumulating snow to
portions of the Upper Midwest and the U.P. of Michigan. On Saturday, the
low center will advance northeast into southeast Canada, but strong winds
and much colder air surging south around the departing low center will
keep a threat of heavy lake-effect snow going across the U.P. of Michigan
where snowfall totals of as much as 1 to 2 feet can be expected. The
exiting low center will drive a strong cold front across the Eastern U.S.
and this coupled with a secondary surge of Arctic air dropping south from
Canada will allow for the transport of much colder air which will bring a
large area of below to much below normal temperatures across the Plains,
Midwest and gradually into much of the East heading into the weekend. Some
portions of the Plains and Midwest will see high temperatures as much as
15 to 25 degrees below normal, with some areas of the Northern Plains
seeing low temperatures by Saturday morning that will be below zero.

The arrival of cold air across the central and eastern portions of the
U.S. will be preceded by mild temperatures, and this relatively warm air
coupled with moisture arriving north from the Gulf of Mexico will set the
stage for areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms for this evening and
overnight across portions of the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi
Valley. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has depicted an Enhanced Risk
of severe weather for areas of north-central to northeast Texas, much of
southern Oklahoma, and southwest Arkansas. Strong winds, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible across these areas. Heavy rainfall
will also be associated with these stronger storms, and there is at least
a localized flash flood threat that may evolve across the Arklatex region
this evening and overnight given the potential for a few inches of rain.
The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted areas of central to southern
Arkansas, far southeast Oklahoma, eastern Texas and northwest Louisiana in
a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall.

Drier air and much more tranquil weather will be the story across much of
the West for the end of the week and into the first part of the weekend
with temperatures near to slightly below normal, except for the Pacific
Northwest where temperatures will be slightly above normal. However, a new
storm system will be approaching the West Coast by the latter part of the
weekend, and thus more unsettled weather will soon be on the horizon.

Orrison


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php