Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 19 2023 - 00Z Tue Mar 21 2023

...Much below normal temperatures to engulf much of the East & South
through Monday; lingering lake effect snow showers tonight & Sunday...

...Next round of rain and heavy mountain snow, colder than normal
temperatures expected throughout the West into next week...

...Scattered showers and thunderstorms across Florida...

Cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes will continue to trigger lake effect
snow showers across parts of the northern Michigan and down wind of Lakes
Erie and Ontario tonight and into early Sunday. A passing surface trough
over New England on Sunday will allow for another day of scattered snow
showers across the Northeast, while high pressure building in from the
southwest shuts off the lake effect snow machine by Sunday afternoon.
Speaking of that area of high pressure, this feature is responsible for
the surge of much below normal temperatures across the much of the
Nation's Heartland and into the Mid-South on Sunday. Numerous Freeze
Warnings have been posted from north Texas to the North Carolina coast
through for both Sunday and Monday mornings. A handful of record breaking
cold min and max temps are expected across the South both Sunday and into
Monday morning. The abnormally cold temperatures extends as far south and
west as West Texas, where Winter Storm Warnings and Weather Advisories are
in effect through Sunday morning due to periods of snow falling in the
higher terrain and Big Bend region of West Texas. The dome of below normal
temperatures will linger through Monday across the South while the Midwest
and Northeast gradually moderate to more seasonal temperatures by Monday
afternoon and into Tuesday.

The West will feature the most active weather pattern to close out the
weekend and kick-off the upcoming week. A storm system is set to deliver
Pacific moisture into California and as far north as the Pacific Northwest
on Sunday. The heaviest snowfall is forecast to occur in the Sierra Nevada
and northern California on Sunday where snowfall totals up to 12 inches
are forecast in the higher terrain. Winter Storm Warnings have been posted
for the northern Sierra Nevada where some snowfall amounts could range
between 1-2 feet with wind gusts climbing as high as 50 mph. Moisture
associated with this storm system will spill into the Great Basin and the
Rockies on Monday, resulting in periods of mountain snow and valley rain
showers. Snowfall totals are forecast to surpass a foot in the higher
elevations of the Great Basin, the Wasatch, and the western Colorado
Rockies. Periods of mountain snow look to continue over the Rockies late
Monday and into Monday night, while the next Pacific storm system
approaches California on Tuesday. Not only will there be mountain snow and
valley/coastal rainfall, but temperatures will remain abnormally cool
throughout the West into the first half of the week.

Farther south, a cold front tracking south through the Florida Panhandle
today is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern
Panhandle this afternoon. The cold front will continue its march south
producing spotty showers across northern and central Florida tonight and
eventually over South Florida by Sunday afternoon and evening. By Monday,
the front will be well south and east of Florida, with residual showers on
Monday dissipating or tracking out to sea by Monday afternoon as high
pressure builds in from the north.

Mullinax


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php