Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Sun Mar 19 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 20 2023 - 00Z Wed Mar 22 2023

...Record-breaking cold across the Southeast Monday morning to lead to
widespread and potentially harmful freezing temperatures...

...Strong storm system to impact southern California on Tuesday with high
winds, heavy rain, and heavy mountain snow...

...Heavy snow to impact parts of the Intermountain West and Rockies before
wintry weather spreads into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on
Tuesday...

A dominant high pressure system spanning from the south-central U.S. to
the East Coast has ushered in a very chilly airmass from the Gulf Coast to
the Northeast, which is likely to lead to widespread freezing temperatures
across the Southeast on Monday morning. Low temperatures are forecast to
dip into the low 30s and 20s across the Gulf Coast and Southeast. These
temperatures equate to around 20 to 30 degrees below average compared to
climatology for the date and could even break several daily low
temperature records. Freeze Warnings have been issued and spread from
eastern Texas to the Carolinas, including much of the Tennessee Valley and
Deep South. Temperatures below the freezing mark could kill sensitive
vegetation, as well as damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. As the high
pressure system gradually slides eastward on Tuesday, slightly warmer
temperatures will surge northward throughout the southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley, but one more cold morning can be expected across the
Southeast.

The next potent storm system to impact California is set to spread
hazardous weather inland on Tuesday, with much of the unsettled conditions
confined to the southern half of the Golden State. High Winds from the
central California coast to Southern California could lead to tree damage
and power outages as gusts reach up to 80 mph. Heavy rain is also forecast
to swing inland on Tuesday and could lead to scattered instances of
flooding and rapid runoff, mainly for southern California, but also
potentially spreading up the central coastline and San Joaquin Valley.
Into Tuesday night, an axis of locally heavy rain is also possible over
central Arizona. Soils remain overly saturated for these regions and could
exacerbate any flood threat. For the central/southern Sierra Nevada and
Southern California mountain ranges, another round of heavy snow is on the
way and could add up to several feet for some the highest terrain.

Heavy snow is also likely to create the potential for hazardous travel
over the next few days across the Intermountain West and Rockies as a
persistent flow of Pacific moisture continues into the region. An initial
weak wave of atmospheric moisture moving through the Great Basin tonight
is likely to spread moderate snowfall into the Utah and western Colorado
mountains. Snowfall amounts could add up to over a foot for these regions.
As this system ejects into Great Plains on Tuesday, an area of
light-to-moderate snow is likely to develop across the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. Generally 3 to 6 inches of snow is anticipated from the
Dakotas to northern Minnesota as the developing low pressure system pushes
northeastward across the region. As the next low pressure system impacting
California on Tuesday pushes into the Great Basin on Tuesday night,
additional rounds of heavy snow are likely into the central Rockies and
Intermountain West.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php