Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Valid 12Z Thu Mar 23 2023 - 12Z Sat Mar 25 2023

...Strong to severe thunderstorms become a significant concern this
afternoon and continuing through Friday from the southern Plains, to the
Mid-South, and possibly into the Ohio Valley Friday night...

...Widespread heavy rain and flash flooding setting up across the
mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley this evening through Friday night...

...A rapidly intensifying low pressure system will likely bring very
strong winds, heavy rain/thunderstorms into the Ohio Valley as heavy snow
could develop across the Midwest into lower Michigan early Saturday
morning...
 
...Unsettled weather and chilly temperatures with locally heavy mountain
snowfall to continue across the West...

...Very warm temperatures will prevail through the end of the week across
much of the South and through the southern portion of the East Coast...

The active weather pattern across much of the mainland U.S. shows no signs
of abating over the next couple of days as we head into the weekend.  The
next upper-level trough and associated cold front from the Pacific Ocean
will once again target the West Coast, this time farther north across the
Pacific Northwest.  Up to a few feet of heavy mountain snow is expected to
fall during the next couple of days across the higher elevations of the
Cascades.  Additional amounts of 1 to 2 feet can be expected farther east
across the Intermountain West and into the northern and central Rockies.
Given the unsettled weather, abundance of clouds and additional
precipitation, the temperatures across much of the western U.S. will be
chilly, especially over the interior sections where readings will be
locally as much as 10 to 20 degrees below normal for daytime highs.

Meanwhile, a very active pattern favoring heavy rain and severe weather
will set up downstream across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi
Valley, Mid-South and into Ohio Valley. The eastern extension of the storm
system that hit California on Tuesday will emerge into the southern Plains
today and will begin interacting with a sharp polar front draped across
the region.  A swath of snow across Nebraska into northern Iowa will taper 
off this morning.  But as abundant moisture surges north from the Gulf of 
Mexico into the Plains ahead of the system, areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms can be expected to develop initially across the Edwards
Plateau and stretching northeast into the Red River Valley of the South
later tonight.  But as a low pressure wave begins to intensify along the
front over Oklahoma on Friday, thunderstorms are expected to erupt and
likely become severe as they move toward the lower to mid-Mississippi
Valley Friday night.  Farther north, an axis of heavy rain is forecast to
set up across the mid-Mississippi to the Ohio Valley Friday and into
Friday night where flash flooding is most likely.  From Friday night into
early on Saturday, the low pressure wave is forecast to intensify rapidly
as it track toward the lower Great Lakes.  This will likely bring very
strong winds along with heavy rain/thunderstorms into the Ohio Valley
while heavy snow is forecast to develop across the Midwest into lower
Michigan early Saturday morning under blustery north to northeasterly
winds.

Elsewhere across the South and many areas of the East ahead of this
developing storm and associated front, very warm temperatures will be in
place with many areas seeing daytime highs well above normal. Many areas
of the Gulf Coast, Mid-South, and Southeast will see high temperatures
well into the 80s through the end of the week, and thus very springlike.

Kong/Orrison


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php