Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
444 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 26 2023 - 00Z Tue Mar 28 2023

...Heavy snow winds down over Great Lakes then picks up over northern New
England; snow continues over Northern Rockies...

...Rain and severe thunderstorms expected from Mississippi to Carolinas
through beginning of work week...

...Powerful storm system to bring unsettled weather to West Coast
beginning Monday...

...Cold in the West warm in the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic; Critical Fire
Weather for the Central/Southern Plains...

A dynamic low pressure system that has already dumped several inches of
snow over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will move into Ontario and Quebec
tonight. Snow will wind down over the Midwest while picking up in
intensity over northern Maine and the higher elevations of Vermont/New
Hampshire tonight. The heavy snow should persist through much of the day
tomorrow before wrapping up. Between 4-8 inches are expected over much of
northern Maine with locally higher accumulations possible. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely across the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast
tonight before clearing out by Sunday morning. Elsewhere, persistent
troughing, cold air and a present stationary front will generate heavy
snow over the mountains of central Iowa, southwestern Montana and northern
Wyoming over the next couple of days.

A quasi-stationary front draped across the Southeast will be the focus for
repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorm activity over the next few
days. Some convective cells may cause isolated flash flooding over
portions of central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia tomorrow, but the
risk remains marginal at this time. The main threat from this setup will
be the potential for severe weather along the stalled out front. Slight
Risks of severe thunderstorms are in effect for portions of Alabama and
southern Georgia tonight due to the risk of isolated large hail and
damaging winds associated with any severe storms. The threat of severe
thunderstorms becomes more scattered by Sunday when supercells producing
large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible from
Louisiana to the Carolina coast. An Enhanced risk area was highlighted by
the Storm Prediction Center for parts of eastern Louisiana through
central-southern Mississippi/Alabama.

Meanwhile, a deep positively tilted upper trough will rapidly intensify as
it glides down the west coast of North America. Despite the uncertainty
displayed by the guidance beyond 48 hours, the signal remains for some
sort of heavy rain/snow event to unfold across California early-to-middle
of next week.

Temperatures should remain below average in the West due to broad
upper-level troughing. Meanwhile, semi-zonal flow with some embedded
shortwave energy should keep temperatures above average across the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions over the next couple of days. Dry and
windy conditions support a critical fire weather area over portions of
southeastern Colorado down through the panhandles of Texas/Oklahoma
tonight. The critical fire area shifts southward into southeastern New
Mexico and western Texas on Sunday.

Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php