Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
432 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Apr 01 2023 - 00Z Mon Apr 03 2023

...A major severe weather outbreak is forecast to continue into tonight
across portions of the Mississippi Valley...

...Winter Storm with Blizzard conditions from Northern Plains to Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes tonight...

...Heavy snow across northwestern mountains...

...Critical Fire Weather persists over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains for the next several days...

A deep upper-level trough will continue to trigger severe weather and
excessive rainfall across the Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys from Iowa to
Ohio down to eastern Texas tonight. The Storm Prediction Center recently
issued a High Risk of Severe Thunderstorms over portions of southeast
Iowa, west-central Illinois, far northeastern Missouri, and in parts of
eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi and southwestern Tennessee. A few
long-track strong to potentially violent tornadoes are probable,
particularly over portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Mid-South.
Damaging wind gusts and very large hail are expected as well. People in
these areas should remain vigilant and prepared to take emergency
precautions if necessary. Conditions should improve later tonight when the
line of convection moves into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley and Southeast.
Some thunderstorms produce heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding as
depicted by a Slight Risk area. Showers and thunderstorms will move into
the Eastern third of the country on Saturday. A Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms is in effect for parts of the Northeast, Delaware as well as
the Southeast where damaging winds will be the main physical weather
concern. There's a Marginal risk of flash flooding in the Southeast on
Saturday. Shortwave energy swinging through the Southern Plains will draw
up another round of Gulf moisture, renewing flash flooding concerns over
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday that might be impacted
by rain and thunderstorms from the ongoing event.

Simultaneously, a winter storm on te northern side of the mid-latitude
cyclone will dump heavy snow, strong winds and blizzard conditions from
southern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
tonight. Between 6-12 inches of snow is expected with a quarter to half
inch of sleet and some freezing rain possible within the transition zones
on the southern periphery of the snow shield. The combination of heavy
snow, wind, freezing rain and sleet may cause issues to power and other
infrastructure tonight. Strong winds and Light to moderate snow will
linger over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Saturday.

A large upper-level low will spin into the Pacific Northwest tonight,
bringing a strong surface low pressure system into the region. Heavy snow
is likely to impact the Cascades and Northern Rockies this weekend as a
result. Between 1-3 feet is expected for the Northern Rockies while 2-4
feet are possible over the Cascades. All the while, dry and windy
conditions will support a Critical Fire Weather threat over portions of
southeastern Colorado, southwestern Kansas and western Oklahoma/Texas
tonight before shrinking a bit to encompass the Texas-New Mexico border
region this weekend into early next week. Warm temperatures in the East
will give way to cooler conditions following a strong cold frontal passage
on Saturday night. The West remains below average, while the
Northern/Central Plains and Midwest drop well below average beneath a
building area of high pressure.

Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php