Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 AM EDT Sat Apr 01 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Apr 01 2023 - 12Z Mon Apr 03 2023

...Strong winds and severe thunderstorms possible across the Ohio Valley,
Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic today...

...Heavy snow to diminish across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this
morning before the next winter storm begins to develop over the central
High Plains Monday night...

...Heavy mountain snow continues across the Pacific Northwest...

...Critical Fire Weather persists over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains for the next several days...

An elongated and strong area of low pressure over the Great Lakes this
morning, combined with both a leading and secondary cold front extending
to the south-southwest, will produce a large area of potentially damaging
wind gusts from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through tonight.
Maximum wind gusts could approach 60 mph throughout much of the
Appalachians, upper Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic today. Winds of this
magnitude are likely to blow down numerous trees and potentially lead to
widespread power outages. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are in
effect. Additionally, severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening as the secondary cold front and newly developing low pressure
system swing into the Interior Northeast. Warming temperatures this
afternoon are expected to help lead to an environment conducive for severe
thunderstorm development along the secondary cold front as it pushes from
the Ohio Valley to the Northeast, with storms capable of containing
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes. A few severe
thunderstorms are also possible further to the south as the aforementioned
cold front reaches the Southeast today. On the cold side of this system,
heavy snow and gusty winds are expected to come to an end across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes this morning as the area of low pressure quickly
slides east.

The next major winter storm (not an April Fools' joke) is set to begin
forming across the central Great Basin and Rockies on Monday before
eventually swinging into the central/northern High Plains on Monday night.
A deep upper-level low diving into the West will be responsible for the
potential widespread area of heavy snow, as well as the likelihood of
strong winds. The greatest potential for over 8 inches of snow through
early Tuesday is forecast to stretch from the mountainous terrain of Utah
to southeast Wyoming, western South Dakota, and northwest Nebraska. The
combination of heavy snowfall rates and gusty winds in these regions are
likely to make travel very dangerous. Strong southwesterly winds across
the Southwest are also likely to lead to travel impacts on Monday,
especially for high profile vehicles, as wind gusts potentially exceed 60
mph.

For the Pacific Northwest, continued onshore flow underneath the
deep-upper level trough is expected to produce very heavy snow across much
of the Cascades through early next week. Total snowfall amounts are likely
to approach 3 to 4 feet, with slightly lesser amounts further inland
across the northern Rockies.

Unsettled and warm weather is forecast throughout much of the
south-central U.S. and Deep South to kick off the month of April. A warm
front lifting into the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on
Sunday will combine with an approaching shortwave trough to produce
numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday night. A few storms could
contain intense rainfall rates between northeast Texas and central
Mississippi, leading to potential flash flooding concerns. Otherwise, well
above average temperatures are also set to build into the region by Monday
and include widespread highs into the 90s and upper 80s across the Lone
Star State. The warm temperatures combined with gusty winds and low
relative humidity will contribute to produce Critical Fire Weather
conditions throughout the central/southern High Plains.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php