Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
419 PM EDT Sat Apr 01 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 02 2023 - 00Z Tue Apr 04 2023

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Lower Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and the northern Mid-Atlantic...

...Heavy snow over parts of the Cascades and Northern Central Rockies...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday...

A front extending from the Northeast roughly southwestward to the
Central/Western Gulf Coast will create showers and severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Northeast. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced
Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Lower Great Lakes, Central
Appalachians, and the northern Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning.

The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Moreover, the upper-level energy associated with the storm will produce
snow and rain over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, ending later
Saturday evening. Overnight Saturday, snow will develop over parts of the
Northeast and into the Central Appalachians, ending by late Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, along the southern half of the front, showers and severe
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southeast. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. The rain will end overnight Saturday over the
Southeastern portion of the U. S.

On Sunday, the front over the Gulf Coast will move northward as a warm
front. Moisture pooling along the boundary will produce heavy rain.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley from Sunday into
Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the
most vulnerable.

Moreover, a front extending from the Northern High Plains southwestward to
Northern California will move eastward to the Great Lakes to the Central
Plains and then to the Central Rockies by Monday evening. The energy
associated with the boundary will aid in procuring coastal rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern
California through Sunday morning. In addition, snow will develop over
parts of the Northern Intermountain Region through Sunday morning, too.

On Sunday morning, weak onshore flow and additional upper-level energy
will create additional coastal rain and higher-elevation snow over the
Pacific Northwest and Northern California through Monday evening. In
addition, the energy will produce heavy snow over the Cascades through
Monday. By Sunday afternoon, snow returns to the Northern Intermountain
Region, continuing into Monday. Waves of low pressure move along the front
producing snow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies and Great Basin
from Sunday into Monday.

Additionally, on Sunday, as the low pressure associated with the system
moves into the Upper Midwest, light snow will develop over parts of the
Upper Midwest into Monday. As the storm moves into Michigan, light rain
and snow develop over the Upper Great Lakes from Sunday afternoon into
Monday. Furthermore, rain will develop along the front on Monday afternoon
into Monday evening from parts of the Northeast to the Ohio Valley.
Showers and thunderstorms will return to the Southeast on Monday.


Ziegenfelder



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php