Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Sun Apr 02 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Apr 02 2023 - 12Z Tue Apr 04 2023

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible across parts of the
southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley today...

...Developing major storm system to spread heavy snow from the Pacific
Northwest and central Great Basin to the central/northern Rockies and High
Plains by Monday, extending into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on
Tuesday...

...Damaging winds to impact the Southwest and Intermountain West on
Monday, with strong winds and Critical Fire Weather throughout the
southern High Plains...

...Severe thunderstorms likely across portions of the Midwest and
Lower/Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday...


A very impactful period of weather is forecast throughout much of the
Nation into the early part of the first full week of April. Starting with
the south-central U.S., a lifting warm front across eastern Texas and the
Gulf Coast will be the focus for developing clusters of showers and
thunderstorms beginning late this afternoon and extending into the
overnight hours. Some storms could be capable of containing very large
hail, localized damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes throughout
north-central and northeast Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has issued
an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms for this region in
order to highlight the potential. Additionally, thunderstorms with intense
rainfall rates could linger over this area long enough to lead to
scattered flash flooding, particularly from northeast Texas to central
Mississippi. Here, a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall has
been issued due to the threat of localized rainfall totals over 2 inches.
By Monday morning, any remaining showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
continue riding along and to the north of the warm front throughout parts
of Alabama, southern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. This could lead
to a localized flooding threat across these parts into Monday afternoon.

Numerous forms of widespread hazardous weather are anticipated to affect
the western and central U.S. early this week as a large and powerful storm
system begins to strengthen over the Intermountain West on Monday before
pushing into the central Plains by Tuesday. Setting the stage for what
could be the biggest snowstorm of the year across parts of the northern
Plains will be a deep and highly anomalous upper-level low swinging from
the Intermountain West to the Central Rockies on Tuesday. This will allow
for a combination of very cold temperatures and ample atmospheric moisture
from the Pacific Ocean. The strong pressure gradient from the eventual
surface low pressure system will aid in creating a very large wind field,
with damaging winds possible for some areas. The warm southerly flow to
the east of the system will lead to spring warmth across the central and
eastern U.S., while cold northerly flow ushers in a new round of well
below average temperatures across the West and snowy north-central parts
of the country. This warm airmass in the East is also likely to help spark
severe thunderstorms throughout the Nation's Heartland as it clashes with
an approaching cold front on Tuesday.

In regards to the winter aspect of the upcoming storm system, heavy snow
is already ongoing across parts of the Northwest as strong onshore flow
aims perpendicular to the Cascades. Several additional feet of snow are
likely across the Oregon Cascades the next few days as the current wave
and next round impact the region on Tuesday. Tonight into Monday is
expected to be the start of the event throughout the Intermountain West
and parts of the central/northern Rockies. A few feet of snow is possible
across the higher terrain of Utah, Colorado and Wyoming, with lower
elevations also seeing heavy snowfall amounts up to a foot. The low snow
levels are likely to lead to numerous travel hazards due to low visibility
and snow-covered roads. By Monday night into Tuesday, the maturing surface
cyclone over the central Plains is forecast to produce periods of very
heavy snow and high winds across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Blizzard conditions are likely from parts of southeast Wyoming to eastern
North Dakota and northern Minnesota, including much of South Dakota and
northwest Nebraska. Over a foot of snow combined with strong winds are
likely to create dangerous to impossible travel conditions and
considerable disruption to daily life. Wind chills near to below zero
during the blizzard could be life-threatening to anyone stranded outdoors.
Slightly to the east, a swath of freezing rain is possible from eastern
South Dakota through central Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and northern
Michigan. Continuous winter weather headlines (Winter Storm
Warnings/Watches and Winter Weather Advisories) stretch from Nevada to
Minnesota.

The large wind field produced by this system is also expected to impact
much of the Southwest and southern High Plains as well, with wind gusts up
to 80 mph possible from inland areas of Southern California to the
southern Rockies on Monday. These wind speeds could pose dangerous to high
profile vehicles, as well as produce tree damage and power outages. High
winds across the central/southern High Plains when combined with low
relative humidity will create Critical Fire Weather conditions. Red Flag
Warnings and Fire Weather Watches extend from southern Arizona to central
Oklahoma.

Lastly (only in terms of chronology), severe thunderstorms are likely to
develop on Tuesday within a broad warm sector ahead of a Plains dry
line/cold front. The severe weather threat is currently expected to
stretch from the Midwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley, a similar area
when compared to the most recent severe weather outbreak. Strengthening
thunderstorms across these regions late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night could pose a risk for a few strong tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging wind gusts.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php