Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Apr 3 2023 - 12Z Wed Apr 5 2023

...There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Midwest on Tuesday...

...Blizzard conditions over the northern Plains on north side of strong
surface low...

...Very warm across the East and winter-like cold across the West and the
Dakotas...

The first half of the work week will be quite active across much of the
nation as a highly impactful winter storm crosses the Rockies Monday and
then emerges over the Plains on Tuesday.  A rapidly amplifying mid-upper
tropospheric trough tracking across the western U.S. today will sustain
vigorous lift and diffluence aloft, and sustain a strong surface low over
Utah and then Colorado that will produce an impressive late season
snowstorm across a wide expanse of the central and northern Rockies
through Tuesday afternoon, with the greatest snowfall totals likely across
the higher terrain of Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado where 1 to 3 feet of
accumulation is looking probable.  High wind warnings are also in effect
from southern California to New Mexico, and extending northward into parts
of southern Utah and Colorado where wind gusts will likely exceed 50 mph
at times.  This combined with low humidity and dry vegetation will
increase the fire weather potential considerably from eastern Arizona to
the Texas Panhandle Monday, and then across a greater portion of the
western High Plains on Tuesday.

After crossing the Rockies, the low pressure system becomes better
organized over the central Plains Tuesday as the upper trough becomes
negatively tilted and then evolves into a closed low.  This intensifying
low will be making multiple weather headlines across the central U.S.,
only several days after a recent powerful low pressure system that was
similar to what is currently being predicted.  A highly anomalous April
snowstorm with blizzard conditions is expected from northwestern Nebraska
and across the central Dakotas and then into northern Minnesota.  The
potential exists for 1-2 feet of wind-driven snow in the core of the
heaviest snow axis, and winds gusts in excess of 40 mph are likely. 
Severe travel disruptions and hazards to livestock in the region are
anticipated on Tuesday and even extending into early Wednesday. 

An expansive warm sector will accompany this low pressure system across
much of the south-central U.S., and a strong combination of kinematics and
instability will lead to a Moderate Risk of severe storms per the latest
Storm Prediction Center convective outlook across portions of Iowa,
northeast Missouri, and western Illinois on Tuesday, with all modes of
severe weather possible.  Severe storms can also be expected southward to
the ArkLaTex region with an Enhanced Risk of severe storms.  Heavy
rainfall may also lead to some localized instances of flooding.  Many of
the areas that got hammered by the last severe weather outlook could be at
risk again, so it's imperative that everyone in this region closely
monitor the latest local forecasts and be prepared to take cover if
warnings are issued. 

Temperatures will be more like late May or early June from Texas eastward
to the Southeast U.S. and Mid-Atlantic for Tuesday and Wednesday, with
widespread high temperatures in the 80s and lows in the 60s, and even in
the 70s near the Gulf Coast.  The anomalous warmth should even extend
north to the southern Great Lakes and Ohio valley.  With the strong front
across the Plains moving eastward, there will be a temperature dichotomy
with much below average readings across basically all of the western U.S.
and northern Plains, with many locations from the northern Rockies to the
Dakotas staying below freezing all day Tuesday.

Hamrick


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php