Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Mon Apr 03 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Apr 04 2023 - 00Z Thu Apr 06 2023

...Heavy snow over parts of the Northern/Central Plains...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast on Monday evening and a Moderate Risk of Severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Western
Gulf Coast, Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on
Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio
Valley and the Great Lakes on Wednesday...

On Monday, a developing area of low pressure will deepen over the Central
Rockies and move northeastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley by
Wednesday morning and then into southwestern Ontario, Canada, by Wednesday
evening.

The low pressure will create a major winter storm producing over a foot of
snow from the Central Rockies to the Northern Plains, challenging some
April snow records in the Dakotas and northwest Minnesota. The highest
totals could locally exceed 24 inches. Avalanches and significant impacts
from snow load are possible across portions of Utah. Furthermore, the
system will create strong winds and heavy snow resulting in whiteout
conditions and significant drifting snow Tuesday and Wednesday, causing
dangerous to impossible driving conditions and considerable disruption to
daily life.

Additionally, the storm will produce wind chills near or below zero during
the blizzard conditions in the Northern Plains, which could be
life-threatening to anyone stranded outside. Moreover, the system will
produce widespread gusts in excess of 50 MPH over the Southwest and Four
Corners on Monday evening, to the Plains Tuesday, and Upper Midwest
Wednesday. As a result, power outages, wind damage, and blowing dust, even
outside of thunderstorm activity, are likely.

Meanwhile, a warm front over the Southeast will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms over the region on Monday evening. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast
through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

On Tuesday, as the associated front moves onto the Plains, showers and
severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Plains and Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from
Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. Furthermore, there will be an increased threat
of EF2-EF5 tornadoes and hail two-inch or greater over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent parts of the Central/Southern
Plains.

On Wednesday, the front continues to move eastward to the Mississippi
Valley, creating more showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on
Wednesday. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Moreover, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop along the
southern portion of the front from parts of the Ohio Valley to the Lower
Mississippi Valley/Western Gulf Coast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Ohio/Tennessee Valley and
the Lower Mississippi Valley/Western Gulf Coast on Wednesday. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

In the meantime, need to include the West Coast, weak onshore flow will
create coastal rain and higher-elevation snow over the Pacific Northwest
and Northern California on Monday evening through Wednesday, when the
precipitation will be off and on. Additionally, snow will develop over
parts of the Northern Intermountain Region/Northern Rockies and Great
Basin through late Tuesday evening. On Wednesday, snow will continue over
the Northern/Central Rockies. 

Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php