Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Apr 4 2023 - 12Z Thu Apr 6 2023

...There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Midwest on Tuesday...

...Blizzard conditions over the northern Plains on north side of strong
surface low...

...Very warm across the East and winter-like cold across the West and the
Dakotas...

An impressive late season winter storm and severe weather outbreak will be
making weather headlines today and extending into Wednesday, less than a
week after the recent blizzard and severe weather outbreak across the
central U.S.  After crossing the Rockies, the low pressure system becomes
better organized over the central Plains Tuesday morning as the upper
trough becomes negatively tilted and then evolves into a closed low.  A
highly anomalous April snowstorm with blizzard conditions is expected from
northwestern Nebraska and across the central Dakotas and then into
northern Minnesota.  The potential exists for 1-2 feet of wind-driven snow
in the core of the heaviest snow axis, and winds gusts in excess of 50 mph
are likely.  Some April snowfall records could be set with this event! 
Severe travel disruptions and hazards to livestock in the region are
anticipated on Tuesday and extending into early Wednesday.  High wind
warnings are also in effect from southern New Mexico to much of western
Texas and extending to southwestern Kansas, with wind gusts 50-70 mph at
times.  This combined with extremely low humidity and dry vegetation will
increase the fire weather potential considerably across western portions
of the central and southern Plains.  There is even an area of extremely
critical fire weather conditions on the Day 1 SPC outlook for much of the
Texas Panhandle and extending into western Oklahoma and Kansas.

An expansive warm sector will accompany this low pressure system across
much of the south-central U.S., and a strong combination of kinematics and
instability has resulted in two Moderate Risk areas of severe storms per
the latest Storm Prediction Center convective outlook on Tuesday across
portions of Iowa, northwestern Illinois, southern Missouri, and
west-central Arkansas with all modes of severe weather possible, including
the potential for supercells with long-track tornadoes.  Severe storms can
also be expected southward to eastern Texas with a Slight Risk of severe
storms.  Heavy rainfall may also lead to some localized instances of
flooding.  Many of the areas that got hammered by the last severe weather
outlook could be at risk again, so it's imperative that everyone in this
region closely monitor the latest local forecasts and be prepared to take
cover if warnings are issued. 

Temperatures will be more reminiscent of late May or early June from Texas
eastward to the Southeast U.S. and Mid-Atlantic for Tuesday and Wednesday,
with widespread high temperatures in the 80s and lows in the 60s, and even
in the 70s near the Gulf Coast.  The anomalous warmth should even extend
north to the southern Great Lakes and Ohio valley.  With the strong front
across the Plains moving eastward, there will be a temperature dichotomy
with much below average readings across basically all of the western U.S.
and northern Plains, with many locations from the northern Rockies to the
Dakotas staying in the 20s to lower 30s all day Tuesday and Wednesday.

Hamrick


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php