Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Tue Apr 04 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Apr 05 2023 - 00Z Fri Apr 07 2023

...Severe weather possible from the western/central Gulf Coast to the
Great Lakes region Today and Wednesday...

...Widespread blizzard conditions expected across the northern Plains
through Wednesday night...

...Very warm in the East and winter-like cold in the West...

A major storm system is forecast to track north-northeast across the
Central U.S. through Wednesday night. The system is currently located over
the central and southern Plains, and will quickly become organized and
push north tonight. Widespread impacts will accompany this system
including severe weather in parts of the Central U.S. and winter storm and
blizzard conditions in the northern Plains. Weather conditions in these
areas could be life-threatening at times, and those in affected areas
should pay close attention to the local NWS Weather Forecast Office for
Advisories, Watches, and Warnings.

Severe weather will develop ahead of and along the trailing cold front as
it pushes east today and Wednesday. Areas from the western and central
Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes region could see severe thunderstorms. The
highest risk areas through tonight (Tuesday) will be eastern Iowa,
northern Illinois, and parts of Arkansas and Missouri where the Storm
Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms.
Potential storm hazards include strong tornadoes, damaging winds, large
hail, and locally heavy rainfall and flooding. The threat area will shift
east on Wednesday as the cold front progresses, and the Storm Prediction
Center has issued an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms from the Lower
Ohio River Valley to the Great Lakes Region. The front will weaken as it
approaches the East Coast on Thursday, which will result in a lower risk
of severe thunderstorms with only isolated severe storms are expected.

On the northern and western sides of the system, widespread heavy snow
totals greater than one foot are forecast from the northern Rockies
through the northern Plains. Some April snowfall records will be
challenged in the Dakotas and northwest Minnesota, and the highest totals
may locally exceed two feet. Heavy snow and strong winds will also result
in widespread blizzard conditions with near zero visibility, making travel
dangerous to impossible. Cold temperatures will feel even colder due to
the strong winds, and life-threatening wind chills below zero are forecast
in the northern Plains.

Strong winds associated with the storm system also extend into the
southern Plains and Southwest, and widespread High Wind Warnings are in
effect. Sustained winds of 35-40 mph with gusts up to 50-70 mph will
remain possible across these areas through tonight. High winds and low
humidity will result in very dangerous fire weather conditions, and the
Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an area of Extremely Critical fire
weather conditions in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and New Mexico.
Winds will gradually decrease overnight.

The warm front connected to the strong low pressure system is lifting
north across the East, creating a broad warm sector ahead of the storm.
Temperatures are well above average in the East and will remain above
average for much of the region through Thursday. Widespread highs in the
70s and 80s are forecast east of the Mississippi River on Wednesday, which
is approximately 15-25 degrees above average! Temperatures in the West are
on the opposite side of the spectrum with well below average temperatures
across much of the region. Widespread below average temperatures are
forecast to continue through Wednesday, then moderate towards the end of
the work week. Temperatures will decrease across the east after the cold
front passes late Thursday and Friday.  


Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php