Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023

Valid 12Z Wed Apr 5 2023 - 12Z Fri Apr 7 2023

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Ohio Valley
on Wednesday...

...Winter storm lingers over far northern Plains on northwest side of
strong surface low...

...Very warm across the East and winter-like cold across the West and the
Dakotas...

An impressive late season winter storm and severe weather outbreak will
continue to make weather headlines today across the Central U.S., less
than a week after the recent blizzard and severe weather outbreak that
hammered parts of this same region.  The main surface low will be tracking
towards the northeast across the Upper Midwest through this afternoon
before exiting across Ontario by Wednesday night, and then near Hudson Bay
by Thursday.  Wind-driven snow is expected to linger across eastern North
Dakota and northern Minnesota today before tapering off towards evening,
and several inches of additional accumulation is likely for these areas. 
Severe travel disruptions and hazards to livestock in the region are
anticipated, along with very cold wind chill values. 

An expansive warm sector will accompany this low pressure system from the
Mid-South to the southern Great Lakes, and a strong combination of
kinematics and instability has resulted in an Enhanced Risk of severe
storms per the latest Storm Prediction Center convective outlook on
Wednesday from the greater Memphis metro area to southern Michigan, with
all modes of severe weather possible.  Severe storms can also be expected
southward to the ArkLaTex region with a Slight Risk of severe storms. 
Heavy rainfall may also lead to some localized instances of flooding with
periods of convective training ahead of the cold front, and the Weather
Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from eastern
Texas to the Ohio Valley for Wednesday/Wednesday night.  It's imperative
that everyone in this region closely monitor the latest local forecasts
and be prepared to take cover if warnings are issued, or seek higher
ground in the event of flash flood warnings.

Temperatures will be more reminiscent of late May or early June from the
Mississippi River eastward to the Southeast U.S. and Mid-Atlantic for
Wednesday and then more confined to the East Coast on Thursday, with
widespread high temperatures in the 80s and lows in the 60s to near 70
degrees in many cases, and increasing humidity levels.  The anomalous
warmth should even extend north to the southern Great Lakes and Ohio
valley on Wednesday.  With the strong front across the Plains moving
eastward, there will be a strong temperature dichotomy with much below
average readings across basically all of the western U.S. and northern
Plains, with many locations from the northern Rockies to the Dakotas
staying in the 20s to lower 30s all day Wednesday, and overnight lows
potentially into the 0s and low 10s.

Hamrick


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php