Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
318 PM EDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 06 2023 - 00Z Sat Apr 08 2023

...Severe thunderstorms possible through tonight from Texas and Louisiana
to the Great Lakes...

...Hazardous winter weather possible through tonight in the northern
Plains and New England...

...Very warm across the East and winter-like cold across the West and the
Dakotas...

The main weather headlines are associated with the broad low pressure
system that is impacting the central and eastern U.S. this week. This low
pressure system is triggering severe weather from East Texas to the Great
Lakes and producing wintry conditions in the northern Plains and Maine
today. Hazardous weather conditions will likely continue through tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a broad Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
Severe Thunderstorms from East Texas and northern Louisiana to the eastern
Great Lakes region with an embedded Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area over
parts of the Ohio Rover Valley. A long line of eastward moving showers and
thunderstorms has developed across this area ahead of a cold front.
Potential storm hazards through tonight include damaging winds, large
hail, and a few tornadoes. Localized heavy rainfall may also produce
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding, and there is a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall in effect from Texas to Kentucky
and east of Lake Ontario.

Wintry weather is occurring today on the northern and western sides of the
low pressure system in the northern Plains and New England. Blizzard
warnings are in effect for parts of the Dakotas where snow showers and
strong winds will cause blowing snow and reduced visibility, which will
make travel dangerous. Additional snowfall totals from today may be
several inches across eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota. To the
East, wintry mixed precipitation will fall mainly as sleet and freezing
rain across the Upper Great Lakes and New England. Winter Weather
Advisories are in effect for parts of Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont
through early Thursday morning. Isolated power outages and slippery travel
are anticipated in these areas. Wintry precipitation will gradually taper
off overnight and early Thursday morning.

Conditions will improve on Thursday as the low pressure system pushes
further north into Canada. The trailing cold front will approach the East
Coast and northern Gulf Coast on Thursday while slowing down and
weakening. The severe threat will decrease, and only isolated severe
thunderstorms will be possible in the Mid-Atlantic and parts of Texas
where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5)
of Severe Thunderstorms. The front will stall near the Gulf coast, which
will prolong the risk of isolated to scattered flash flooding in the
vicinity of the western/northern Gulf Coast and parts of the South through
Friday.

Precipitation will also impact the Pacific Northwest through the end of
this week as two different frontal systems approach the region. Rounds of
precipitation are forecast, falling as rain at low elevations and mixed
precipitation and snow at higher elevations.

Temperatures are abnormal today across the nation. Well above average high
temperatures are being observed east of the Mississippi River (excluding
New England where precipitation is keeping temperatures cooler), and well
below average high temperatures are being observed west of the Mississippi
River (coldest in the Intermountain West and northern and central Plains).
Temperatures will return to near average values for this time of year as
we approach the end of the work week.


Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php